Interpolation of Point Prevalence Rate of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 Second Phase Epidemic in South Korea

Ahmad, Saleem; Koh, Kye-Young; Lee, Jae‐Il; Suh, Guk-Hyun; Lee, Chang-Min

doi:10.3390/vetsci9030139

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Kriging Approach. Kriging is a multistep approach structured into a geostatistical method accounting for spatial autocorrelation [48][49][50], diferent from deterministic interpolation methods such as IDW (45,46), and has been applied in a wide range of felds [51][52][53]. For a point of S i (i � 1, .…”

Section: Predicted Wild Boar Emergence Surface In Gifu By Thementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Development of an Effective Oral Vaccine Dissemination Strategy against Classical Swine Fever for Wild Boar in Gifu Prefecture, Japan

Itō

Bosch

Aguilar-Vega

et al. 2023

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after more than a quarter of a century. After the first notification on a pig farm, wild boars positive for CSF were found continuously in the surrounding area. Gifu was the first prefecture in Japan to disseminate oral vaccines to wild boars in March 2019, with vaccines spread to approximately 14,000 sites between 2019 and 2020. While these diligent measures seemed to have shown some effectiveness, several vaccine spray sites remained without wild boar emergence. Based on the vaccine dissemination records from these periods, this study conducted a statistical analysis to propose more effective vaccine dissemination sites. First, a generalized linear mixed model was used to identify factors correlated with wild boar emergence. Then, two spatial interpolation methods, inverse distance weighted (IDW) and Kriging, were adopted to create a probability map of wild boar emergence for the entire Gifu Prefecture. The analysis showed a positive correlation between wild boar emergence and the appearance of raccoons, raccoon dogs, and crows as well as road density and wild boar distribution index. In particular, raccoon (OR: 1.83, 95%CI: 1.25–2.68, p < 0.001), raccoon dog (OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.25–2.66, p < 0.001), and medium level road density (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.04–2.39, p = 0.04) were strongly correlated with wild boar emergence. The spatial interpolation approach resulted in better prediction accuracy for the Kriging method than for IDW by the root mean square error, but both approaches identified a high wild boar appearance probability area in southeastern Gifu and a low appearance probability area in central Gifu. Here we have demonstrated a tool to effectively disperse oral vaccine to wildlife.

show abstract

Section: Predicted Wild Boar Emergence Surface In Gifu By Thementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Te validation was performed for each method using the "gstat.cv" function from the "gstat" package. Te predicted and observed columns of the resulting table were used to calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) [51].…”

Section: Cross-validationmentioning

confidence: 99%