Interpretable Real-Time Win Prediction for Honor of Kings—A Popular Mobile MOBA Esport

Yang, Zelong; Pan, Zhufeng; Wang, Yan; Cai, Deng; Shi, Shuming; Huang, Shao-Lun; Bi, Wei; Liu, Xiaojiang

doi:10.1109/tg.2022.3149044

Cited by 22 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…2) Due to the different times when definitions came up, the forms of esports have undergone significant changes. In some definitions, esports is limited to computer games, but in the current industry, various forms of esports are recognized, including mobile games, motion-sensing games, and more [ 58 , [103] , [104] , [105] ]. 3) With advancements in technology, the traditional keyboard and mouse input method is no longer the only option.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What is esports? A systematic scoping review and concept analysis of esports

Tang,

Sum,

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What is esports? A systematic scoping review and concept analysis of esports

Tang,

Sum,

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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“…The eight papers among the win prediction studies we surveyed use only pre-match information. attempted not just to predict the outcome of matches but also to interpret which features were essential to derive the outcome, using 184 thousand match data of Honor of the Kings [20]. Their model consists of two stages, spatial and temporal.…”

Section: Win Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Action2Score: An Embedding Approach To Score Player Action

Jang¹,

Woo²,

Kim³

2022

Preprint

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Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) is one of the most successful game genres. MOBA games such as League of Legends have competitive environments where players race for their rank. In most MOBA games, a player's rank is determined by the match result (win or lose). It seems natural because of the nature of team play, but in some sense, it is unfair because the players who put a lot of effort lose their rank just in case of loss and some players even get free-ride on teammates' efforts in case of a win. To reduce the side-effects of the team-based ranking system and evaluate a player's performance impartially, we propose a novel embedding model that converts a player's actions into quantitative scores based on the actions' respective contribution to the team's victory. Our model is built using a sequence-based deep learning model with a novel loss function working on the team match. We showed that our model can evaluate a player's individual performance fairly and analyze the contributions of the player's respective actions.

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“…[15] uses machine learning methods such as Logistic Regression and Decision Tree to predict the results of DotA2 using professional-level in-game data. [16] proposes a two-stage model TSSTN to perform interpretable in-game predictions for HoK. However, this model can attribute the results to only six human-selected features such as "gold" and "heroes".…”

Section: A Moba Game Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Events in MOBA Games: Prediction, Attribution, and Evaluation

Yang,

Wang,

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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The multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) games have become increasingly popular in recent years. Consequently, many efforts have been devoted to providing pre-game or in-game predictions for them. However, these works are limited in the following two aspects: 1) the lack of sufficient in-game features; 2) the absence of interpretability in the prediction results. These two limitations greatly restrict the practical performance and industrial application of the current works. In this work, we collect and release a large-scale dataset containing rich in-game features for the popular MOBA game Honor of Kings. We then propose to predict four types of important events in an interpretable way by attributing the predictions to the input features using two gradient-based attribution methods: Integrated Gradients and SmoothGrad. To evaluate the explanatory power of different models and attribution methods, a fidelity-based evaluation metric is further proposed. Finally, we evaluate the accuracy and Fidelity of several competitive methods on the collected dataset to assess how well machines predict events in MOBA games.

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Interpretable Real-Time Win Prediction for Honor of Kings—A Popular Mobile MOBA Esport

Cited by 22 publications

References 17 publications

What is esports? A systematic scoping review and concept analysis of esports

What is esports? A systematic scoping review and concept analysis of esports

Action2Score: An Embedding Approach To Score Player Action

Predicting Events in MOBA Games: Prediction, Attribution, and Evaluation

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