Intersecting near-optimal spaces: European power systems with more resilience to weather variability

Spatio-temporal smoothing and dynamics of different electricity flexibility options

“…We follow the second part of the regression from [Gro+23] in which we estimate the daily load ( ) of different weekdays (and holidays which are classified as Sundays) that is independent of temperature and the load that is mostly driven by heating demand (as cooling demand is statistically insignificant in the north and not that relevant in the south):…”

“…Furthermore, we estimate mean electricity load for many realisations of a calendar year, driven by an autoregressive (AR) process which is trained on ERA5 reanalysis temperature data of the current representative period 1991-2020. These data follow realistic daily load profiles obtained through a regression as in [Gro+23] with stochasticity introduced by the AR process describing temperature throughout a weather year [Egg+22; BBK08; Här+10; HC12]. The currently installed wind capacities (2022) are 3257 MW in NO-N and 1811 MW in NO-S and have an annual average generation of 16.8 TWh [The22], constituting 12.8% of the average electricity demand for the years 2014-2018 in Norway, based on Nordpool data [Nor21].…”

“…Zeyringer et al show for Great Britain by using 10 weathers that reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs [Zey+18]. Using 41 weather years Grochowicz et al demonstrate for a European renewable based power system that transmission expansion is an important contributor to robustness [Gro+23]. However, these studies assume perfect foresight and thus do not take into account the stochasticity of the weather variables.…”

Future costs of power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuels produced from hybrid solar PV-wind plants in Europe

“…In order to study this variability, hourly wind speed and solar irradiance data were obtained for each of the evaluation cells within Europe for 2016, a year without any large resource anomalies. 68,69…”

Diversity of biomass usage pathways to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system

“…Commonly, the single cost-optimal solution in both IAM and energy system modelling studies is in focus, combined with some sensitivity analyses. However, there are large uncertainties regarding future energy systems, and recent analyses have shown that the technology mix variety of near-optimal solutions when allowing a small system cost increase can be distinctly different from the single optimal solution, in the power system [32][33][34][35], in integrated assessments [36] and in a sector-coupled European energy system [31,37]. The available amount of biomass has been found to affect the manoeuvring space substantially [31].…”