Interspecific Variance of Suitable Habitat Changes for Four Alpine Rhododendron Species under Climate Change: Implications for Their Reintroductions

Zhang, Jinhong; Li, Kun-Ji; Liu, Xiaofei; Liu, Yang; Shen, Shi-Kang

doi:10.3390/f12111520

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The MaxEnt model is reliable in predicting the response of species' spatial distribution to future climate change [56,57]. The average AUC values outputted by the MaxEnt model for the four endangered spruce species in this study are 0.926, 0.973, 0.977, and 0.988 indicating that the prediction is nearly perfect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Global Warming Drives Expansion of Endangered Spruce Forest on the Tibetan Plateau

Zhang,

Yuan,

Zou

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Global warming is critical to the distribution pattern of endangered plants; therefore, understanding the future changes in the adaptive areas of endangered spruce and driving factors on the Tibetan Plateau is of great research significance for spruce species conservation and sustainability. In this study, variations in the distribution pattern of four endangered spruce species (Picea. Balfouriana, Picea. Linzhiensis, Picea. Complanata, and Picea. Aurantiaca) on the Tibetan Plateau were predicted by the MaxEnt model, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographic distribution were analyzed. We found that under the current climate conditions, the four endangered spruce species were mainly situated in the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter was a key environmental variable affecting the geographic distribution of four endangered spruce species, with suitable growth ranges of −9–8 °C for P. balfouriana and −6–5 °C for P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca. Under different future climate pathways, the highly suitable habitat of four endangered spruce was mainly situated in the east, south, and southeast districts of the Tibetan Plateau. With the suitable growth range of key variables continuing to expand on the Tibetan Plateau, the area of suitable habitat for each of the four endangered spruce species increases to varying degrees. Compared with the current climate, four endangered spruce species will expand to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau under different future climate scenarios, and the degree of expansion will increase with the increase in temperature. This study not only reveals the response of suitable habitats of four endangered spruce species to global warming, but also provides scientific insights for spruce population conservation and sustainable development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Global Warming Drives Expansion of Endangered Spruce Forest on the Tibetan Plateau

Zhang,

Yuan,

Zou

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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“…These pathways represent different scenarios of climate change, ranging from the lowest to the highest emission scenario. Furthermore, they have been widely employed in examining the species' response to climate change (Zhang et al, 2021). Both RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 represent intermediate and stable climate change scenarios, with RCP4.5 being considered more significant than RCP6.0 (Moss et al, 2010).…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Suitable Distribution of Critically Endangered Tree Species Yulania zenii in China

Wang,

Zhi,

Zhang

2024

Preprint

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Climate change poses a serious threat to the ancient Magnoliaceae family, particularly for the endangered Yulania trees. Until now, little is known about the suitable geographical range of Yulania zenii, and about how it responds to past and future climate scenarios. Here, we first employed ten models from Biomod2 to preliminarily simulate its potential distribution in China and selected MaxEnt for final modeling. The results showed that among the key environmental factors influencing its distribution, the top three factors were Bio2 (Mean diurnal range), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality of variation coefficient) and Elevation. Its current suitable distribution were primarily concentrated in southern Anhui, central Hubei, eastern Hunan, southern Jiangsu, northern Jiangxi, and northern Zhejiang. The total suitable area of Yulania zenii was 14.68 × 104 km2, only taking 1.53% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. During the Last Interglacial and Middle Holocene, its suitable habitats were larger than currently, exhibiting a relatively continuous distribution. Under various future climate scenarios, its suitable habitats may averagely decrease by 20.26% compared with the current, and these habitats become more fragmented. Collectively, the centroid of Yulania zenii is expected to migrate towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate, for the first time, that climate change takes an adverse effect on this species in distribution from the past to current till future. Our study can contribute to the conservation and management of Yulania zenii in China, and can provide reference for other endangered Yulania species of this country under the condition of climate change.

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“…The predicted spatial patterns of change in this study were based only on the response of P. massoniana to future climate change without taking into account other factors that limit its migration. Migration capacity has important effects on the adaptation of tree species to future climate change (Corlett and Westcott, 2013), which is limited by plant community competition, geographic barriers, human activities, and land use (Zhang et al, 2020(Zhang et al, , 2021. However, it is currently difficult to integrate all influencing factors into one model to simulate the potential distribution of species (Guan et al, 2022).…”

Section: Analysis Of Future Potential Suitable Habitatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potentially suitable habitat prediction of Pinus massoniana Lamb. in China under climate change using Maxent model

Wang²,

Zhu³

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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BackgroundPinus massoniana is an important timber species with high ecological and economic value in southern China and a pioneer species for the reforestation of barren mountains. The structure and function of the existing Masson pine ecosystem have been seriously affected by worsening habitats under current climate change. Its suitable habitat is likely to change greatly in the near future.MethodsTo estimate the potential geographic distribution of P. massoniana and its response to climate change, the Maxent model was selected to simulate the potentially suitable habitat and corresponding changes in the distribution pattern of P. massoniana under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) with two periods (2050s and 2090s).ResultsUnder current climate conditions, the total suitable habitat area of P. massoniana was 2.08 × 106 km2, including 0.76 × 106 km2 of highly suitable habitat, concentrated mainly in Jiangxi and Zhejiang, central and southeastern Hunan, northern Fujian, central and western Chongqing, southern Anhui, central and surrounding areas of Guangdong, central and eastern Guangxi, and northern Taiwan. The areas of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat were 0.87 × 106 km2 and 0.45 × 106 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation appear to be the most important predictors: precipitation of the driest month (14.7–215.6 mm), minimum temperature of the coldest month (−3.5–13.8°C), annual temperature range (8.1–32.9°C), and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (23.6–34.7°C). P. massoniana are predicted to expand their potential distribution under future climate change: by the end of this century, their total suitable habitat area increased 0.26 × 106 km2 (10.61%) and 0.45 × 106 km2 (17.05%) under the most moderate (SSP1-2.6) and severe (SSP5-8.5) warming scenarios, respectively, by mainly extending northward.ConclusionUnder the different future climate scenarios, the total suitable habitat area of P. massoniana increased by mainly extending northward. Overall, our study clarifies the potential habitat distribution of P. massoniana and provides a critical empirical reference for future P. massoniana conservation and planting practices.

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Interspecific Variance of Suitable Habitat Changes for Four Alpine Rhododendron Species under Climate Change: Implications for Their Reintroductions

Cited by 15 publications

References 44 publications

Global Warming Drives Expansion of Endangered Spruce Forest on the Tibetan Plateau

Global Warming Drives Expansion of Endangered Spruce Forest on the Tibetan Plateau

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Suitable Distribution of Critically Endangered Tree Species Yulania zenii in China

Potentially suitable habitat prediction of Pinus massoniana Lamb. in China under climate change using Maxent model

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