Prepared for the Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol 2A and 2B. For helpful comments and suggestions, we thank the editors, John Taylor and Harald Uhlig; our discussant, Alp Simsek; various participants at the Handbook Conference hosted by the Becker Friedman Institute in Chicago; and especially Harris Dellas. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.