Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems

Box, G. E. P.; Tiao, George C.

doi:10.2307/2285379

Cited by 686 publications

(463 citation statements)

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“…Box and Tiao (1975) refer to such special events as interventions. This could be for example the outbreak of an epidemic in a time series which counts the weekly number of patients infected with a particular disease.…”

Section: Intervention Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

tscount: An R Package for Analysis of Count Time Series Following Generalized Linear Models

Liboschik¹,

Fokianos²,

Fried³

2017

J. Stat. Soft.

174

163

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The R package tscount provides likelihood-based estimation methods for analysis and modeling of count time series following generalized linear models. This is a flexible class of models which can describe serial correlation in a parsimonious way. The conditional mean of the process is linked to its past values, to past observations and to potential covariate effects. The package allows for models with the identity and with the logarithmic link function. The conditional distribution can be Poisson or negative binomial. An important special case of this class is the so-called INGARCH model and its log-linear extension. The package includes methods for model fitting and assessment, prediction and intervention analysis. This paper summarizes the theoretical background of these methods. It gives details on the implementation of the package and provides simulation results for models which have not been studied theoretically before. The usage of the package is illustrated by two data examples. Additionally, we provide a review of R packages which can be used for count time series analysis. This includes a detailed comparison of tscount to those packages.

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Section: Intervention Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

tscount: An R Package for Analysis of Count Time Series Following Generalized Linear Models

Liboschik¹,

Fokianos²,

Fried³

2017

J. Stat. Soft.

174

163

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Furthermore, classical experimental designs based on randomization and replication are logistically unfeasible at the population level. While tools from economics and environmental science can facilitate analysis of large, unreplicated 'experiments' (Box & Tiao 1975;Stewart-Oaten et al 1992;Underwood 1994), these tools…”

Section: Is It a Strain Replacement?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reproduction number (also called the basic reproduction number) of a strain is defined as the expected number of secondary infections one infectious individual can produce during its lifetime as an infectious individual placed in an entirely susceptible population. Often, the strain with the largest reproduction number dominates in the population (Bremermann & Thieme 1989). This rule of dominance holds when exclusion is the only possible population level outcome of the competition.…”

Section: The Causal Mechanism Of Strain Replacementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccine-induced pathogen strain replacement: what are the mechanisms?

Martcheva

Holt

2007

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Host immune systems impose natural selection on pathogen populations, which respond by evolving different antigenic signatures. Like many evolutionary processes, pathogen evolution reflects an interaction between different levels of selection; pathogens can win in between-strain competition by taking over individual hosts (within-host level) or by infecting more hosts (population level). Vaccination, which intensifies and modifies selection by protecting hosts against one or more pathogen strains, can drive the emergence of new dominant pathogen strains-a phenomenon called vaccine-induced pathogen strain replacement. Here, we review reports of increased incidence of subdominant variants after vaccination campaigns and extend the current model for pathogen strain replacement, which assumes that pathogen strain replacement occurs only through the differential effectiveness of vaccines against different pathogen strains. Based on a recent theoretical study, we suggest a broader range of possible mechanisms, some of which allow pathogen strain replacement even when vaccines are perfectthat is, they protect all vaccinated individuals completely against all pathogen strains. We draw an analogy with ecological and evolutionary explanations for competitive dominance and coexistence that allow for tradeoffs between different competitive and life-history traits.

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“…Over Europe (Fig. 4), CARAIB biome distribution was compared notably with Bohn et al 2003. With CARAIB, Europe is mostly covered by forests, from boreal forests in the north, to mixed forests in southern Scandinavia, Russia and some mountainous areas, to deciduous forests in lowlands of Central and Western Europe, and to warm temperate (Mediterranean) forests in southern Europe and on the Atlantic coast of France.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%