Intervention Model Analysis The Number of Domestic Passengers at Sultan Hasanuddin Airports

Abstract

Domestic passengers are objects whose travel / flight transportation services only cover the domestic area. The increase or decrease in the number of domestic passengers is usually influenced by the occurrence of intervention. This research uses the intervention analysis. Intervention analysis is the time series analysis to model data that is determined by the presence of an intervention. Intervention analysis is one of the time series analysis to model data that are affected by the occurrence of a particular event in a short period of time, such as accidents, natural disasters, and promotions. This research is used to establish intervention model with pulse function of passengers of domestic Sultan Hasanuddin Airport. The result of the research were obtained the model Seasonal ARIMA .There were 6 intervention times during 2006 - 2018, by entering the intervention order b = 0, s = 0, and r = 1 based on the smallest AIC value is -303,66 with MAPE value is 6,1023.
 Keywords : Domestic passanger, Seasonal ARIMA, MAPE, Intervention analysis, pulse function

PREDIKSI TINGGI GELOMBANG LAUT JAKARTA UTARA MENGGUNAKAN MACHINE LEARNING: PERBANDINGAN ALGORITMA ARIMA & SARIMA

“…Sehingga memungkinkan untuk mendapatkan hasil pengujian yang lebih baik (Unnikrishnan et al, 2016). Sedangkan penggunaan model SARIMA memiliki pola fluktuasi secara musiman atau periodik secara berulang yang memiliki intensitas setiap satu tahun (Sutrisno et al, 2021). Sehingga hal tersebut menunjukan bahwa model SARIMA memiliki karakteristik yang berisfat korelasi kuat dalam menentukan nilai pada pola yang bersifat musiman atau periode.…”