Introducing the Mapping Attitudes, Perceptions and Support (MAPS) dataset on the Colombian peace process

Abstract

This article introduces the Mapping Attitudes, Perceptions and Support (MAPS) dataset, which provides rich survey data from more than 12,000 respondents in Colombia. Our panel survey – carried out in two separate waves in 2019 and 2021 – is representative at the level of each ‘Program for Development with a Territorial Focus’ (PDET, for its acronym in Spanish), the most war-affected regions and those targeted for peace agreement implementation. We describe the sample and compare support for the peace agreement in MAPS to other recent surveys in Colombia, showing how MAPS reveals regional variation obscured in nationally representative surveys. Regression analyses illustrate how the panel data allow us to explore how and why people’s perceptions of the agreement shift over time. The MAPS data will enable scholars to gain insights into the microfoundations of peacebuilding over time and across space.

Did Covid‐19 Change Armed Group Governance? Evidence from a Survey of Local Security Authorities in Colombia

“…For nearly 60 years, conflict in Colombia has pitted the government and affiliated right-wing paramilitaries against the large rebel armies of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia -People's Army) and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN, National Liberation Army), as well as smaller insurgent groups, including the Ejército Popular de Liberación (EPL, Popular Liberation Army). Despite a 2016 peace agreement with the FARC that led to the group's demobilisation, numerous other armed groups -including FARC dissidents who have disavowed the agreement, other smaller rebel groups, neo-paramilitaries, and sophisticated criminal organizations -continue to compete for rents from illicit economies and govern civilian behaviour across the country (Weintraub et al, 2023). Today, both rebels and armed criminal groups engage in a wide variety of governance activities, including adjudicating disputes, regulating access to public services, building roads, and providing health care services (International Crisis Group, 2017;Idler 2019;Blattman et al, 2021).…”

Los nadies y las nadies: The Effect of Peacebuilding on Political Behavior in Colombia

“…In addition, members of PDET communities have complained that they have been excluded from consultation during the implementation of development projects (Tovar et al 2023). On average, the level of satisfaction with security and public works in PDET communities has decreased over time (Weintraub et al 2023). For these reasons, we argue that PDET's effects on voter turnout are a function of the "mobilizational infrastructure" that community participation in PDET has produced (Boulding and Holzner 2021), rather than its effects on political preferences, on trust in government, or its impact on violence.…”

“…However, it is crucial to exercise caution in generalizing our results. Questions remain about the future support of PDET communities for the left, especially given the uneven progress of the Peace Agreement and the PDET program (Weintraub et al 2023). Violence continues to impact politics in many PDET regions, raising concerns about the potential consequences of failing to address safety, public service, and resource disparities in these areas in future elections.…”

“…The progress of the Peace Agreement, and specifically the PDET program, has been extremely uneven. Violence still matters to politics in most of the 16 PDET regions (Weintraub et al 2023). Social leaders in these areas are killed at higher rates, and armed groups still occupy territory in a number of PDET municipalities (Albarracín et al 2023).…”

“…The Comprehensive Rural Reform Program, of which PDET is a part, aims to "contribute to the reversal of the effects of the conflict and to change the conditions that have facilitated the persistence of violence" in these historically affected zones of the country (Gobierno de Colombia and FARC-EP 2016, 8). However, evidence from two survey waves (2019 and 2021) of 12,000 Colombians living in the 16 PDET areas finds that perceptions of overall security in PDET municipalities are quite low and have worsened over time (Weintraub et al 2023). In 2021, respondents in 13 of the 16 PDET municipalities perceived that their security situation had worsened since 2019; 35 percent of respondents reported that conflict continued in their municipality, in comparison to 17 percent in 2019.…”