Introduction: Assessing the effects of climate change on Chicago and the Great Lakes

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Parzen, Julia

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2009.09.009

Cited by 47 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-meteorological regime in the Great Lakes basins have been the subject of recent investigations (e.g., Lofgren et al, 2002;Cherkauer and Sinha, 2010;Wuebbles et al, 2010). In a companion manuscript in this special issue, Dibike et al (2012) analyzed future climate projections from three regional climate models (RCMs) corresponding to the IPCC's SRES A2 scenario for the entire LWW.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of climate-induced hydrologic changes in the Lake Winnipeg watershed

Shrestha

Dibike

Prowse

2012

Journal of Great Lakes Research

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of climate-induced hydrologic changes in the Lake Winnipeg watershed

Shrestha

Dibike

Prowse

2012

Journal of Great Lakes Research

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“…Further, it contributes hundreds of billions of dollars to the annual economy, and the area is comprised of extensive and varying natural ecosystems (MacKay and Seglenieks 2013). A number of impact and assessment studies have been carried out for this region with ad hoc selections of coarse-scale models and their outputs (Croley 2003;Angel and Kunkel 2010;Cherkauer and Sinha 2010;Hayhoe et al 2010a, b;Wuebbles et al 2010). Their results have identified trends consistent with a warming climate, such as shorter winters, higher annual mean temperatures, and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events (Kling et al 2003;Kling and Wuebbles 2005;Hayhoe et al 2010b;d'Orgeville et al 2014;Bartolai et al 2015).…”

Section: Addressing Climate Change Uncertainties For Agricultural Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to a selected group of GCMs, precipitation is expected to increase in summer by 15 to 25 % by 2025-2034(Sousounis and Albercook 2000 or, possibly, decrease in summer and increase in winter and spring (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004). Such inconsistent trends are likely due to a particular choice of the future greenhouse dynamics scenario, e.g., A1B (Wiley et al 2010), A2 (Lofgren et al 2011;MacKay and Seglenieks 2013), B1 and A1F1 (Hayhoe et al 2010a, b;Wuebbles et al 2010), or B2 and A2 (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004); or due to a subjective selection of either a single or several GCMs, e.g., CGCM3 (Lofgren et al 2011), CGCM3, CRCM, and GLRCM (MacKay and Seglenieks 2013), CM2.1, HadCM3, and PCM (Hayhoe et al 2010a, b;Wuebbles et al 2010), or HadCM3 and PCM (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004). A more complete investigation of climate change information is warranted for the Great Lakes watershed, particularly, given the high uncertainty of projecting the Great Lakes levels (Lofgren et al 2011), attributed to uncertainties of hydrologic response in the over-lake areas and their watersheds.…”

Section: Addressing Climate Change Uncertainties For Agricultural Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and uncertainty assessment over a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan

Kim

Ivanov

Fatichi

2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Predictions of a warmer climate over the Great Lakes region due to global change generally agree on the magnitude of temperature changes, but precipitation projections exhibit dependence on which General Circulation Models and emission scenarios are chosen. To minimize model-and scenario-specific biases, we combined information provided by the 3rd phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database. Specifically, the results of 12 GCMs for three emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 were analyzed for mid-(2046-2065) and end-century (2081-2100) intervals, for six locations of a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan. As a result of Bayesian Weighted Averaging, total annual precipitation averaged over all locations and the three emission scenarios increases by 7 % (mid-)-10 % (end-century), as compared to the control period . The projected changes across seasons are non-uniform and precipitation decreases by 3 % (mid-)-5 % (end-) for the months of August and September are likely. Further, average temperature is very likely to increase by 2.02-2.85°C by the mid-century and 2.58-4.73°C by the end-century. Three types of nonadditive uncertainty sources due to climate models, anthropogenic forcings, and climate internal variability are addressed. When compared to the emission uncertainty, the relative magnitudes of the uncertainty types for climate model ensemble and internal variability are 149 and 225 % for mean monthly precipitation, and they are respectively 127 and 123 % for mean monthly temperature. A decreasing trend of the frost days and an increasing trend of the growing season length are identified. Also, a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events is projected, with relatively more pronounced changes for heavy hourly rainfall as compared to daily events. Quantifying the inherent natural uncertainty and projecting hourly-based extremes, the study results deliver useful information for water resource stakeholders interested in impacts of climate change on hydro-morphological processes.

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“…The capability of lakes to perturb local climate conditions through mesoscale circulation was demonstrated in [11], through numerical simulations of atmosphere-lake interactions in northern Canada. While the effects of climate change on lakes' ecosystems [12] and of other local climate phenomena, e.g., urban heat island, on building thermal-energy performance are already investigated and well documented [13], a lack of knowledge about the impact of the lake's presence on the local microclimate and on the surrounding buildings' energy need is detected [14]. Nevertheless, the role of local microclimate variations generated by huge masses of water in affecting buildings energy requirement represents an important issue, given that buildings are responsible for ~40% of global energy consumption in developed countries [15,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Local Microclimate Boundary Conditions on Building Energy Performance

et al. 2015

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Local environmental boundaries play an important role in determining microclimate conditions affecting thermal-energy behavior of buildings. In this scenario, the purpose of the present work is to investigate how residential buildings are affected by different local microclimate conditions. To this aim, the continuous microclimate monitoring of (i) a rural area; (ii) a suburban area; and (iii) an urban area is carried out, and the comparative analysis of the different boundary conditions is performed. In particular, the effect of the presence of a large lake in the rural area on building energy demand for heating and cooling is evaluated, both in winter and summer. Coupled degree hour method and numerical analysis are performed in order to predict the energy requirement of buildings subject to local microclimate boundary conditions. The main results show higher air temperature and relative humidity values for the rural area. No significant mitigation effect due to the lake presence is found in urban and suburban areas because of the peculiar wind regime of the region. Additionally, the dynamic thermal-energy simulation shows a decrease of 14% and 25% in the heating consumption and an increase of 58% and 194% in cooling requirements of buildings situated in the rural area around the lake compared to the urban and suburban areas, respectively.

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Introduction: Assessing the effects of climate change on Chicago and the Great Lakes

Cited by 47 publications

References 23 publications

Modelling of climate-induced hydrologic changes in the Lake Winnipeg watershed

Modelling of climate-induced hydrologic changes in the Lake Winnipeg watershed

Climate change and uncertainty assessment over a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan

The Impact of Local Microclimate Boundary Conditions on Building Energy Performance

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