Inundation Hazards on Nile Downstream Countries Due to Gerd Break

Abstract

Flood due to Dam break can cause a huge loss to human life and property on the downstream area. This loss to human life and property depended on extent of inundation area, size of population at risk, the propagation of flood waves and the amount of warning time available. This paper presents flood hazards on Sudan and Egypt due to Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) break. The GERD is located at 20 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudaness border on Blue Nile River. GERD break may be occurred due to many different reasons such as structural instability, overtopping and seepage. Earthquakes, landslide and sabotage can be leads to insidious GERD break. Outflow hydrographs due to GERD break were obtained by HEC-RAS model. The Blue Nile and the Nile River downstream of GERD until the AHD is simulated using SOBEK 1D-2D model. The related data were collected to simulate and analyze GERD break hazard. A risk assessment of the GERD break is obtained. The flood wave propagation is found in terms of inundations maps. The flood water levels and arrival time downstream GERD to AHD is achieved. The results of this investigation could be used to help decision makers to prepare an emergency plan and warning systems to rescue the affected downstream area and to put an evacuate plan.