Inundation Mapping and Flood Frequency Analysis using HEC-RAS Hydraulic Model and EasyFit Software

Abstract

Conducting a flood frequency analysis and mapping of the inundated area in rivers are important for river flow modeling. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the peak flow, model the inundated area using HEC-RAS, and conduct an analytical hierarchy process for the upper Baro Akobo basin in Ethiopia. The inundation area and river depth for 25, 50 and 100 years are considered while contemplating several factors which contribute to flooding. The downstream of the basin has experienced numerous floods that occurred in 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Flood frequency analysis with stream flow data from 1990–2009 at the Baro-Gambella gauging station was carried out to estimate the expected peak floods of the watershed. The analysis was conducted using the Gumbel, Normal, and Log Pearson Type III distribution methods. The peak floods with return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years with a minimum statistical value calculated using the Normal distribution method resulted in 1739.586 m3/s, 1820.872 m3/s, and 1893.974 m3/s, respectively. The HEC-RAS model results indicated that the flood inundation areas under different land use changes for 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods were 446.2 km2 (annual crop cover), 404.4 km2 (built area cover), 323.3 km2 (flooded vegetation), and 93.58 km2 (forest area), respectively, whereas the inundation depth ranged from 0–2.6 m, 0–2.9 m, and 0–3.2 m depth at the upstream and downstream of the river, respectively. The outcome of this study could be used to reduce temporal and permanent flood risk.