Invaders at the doorstep: Using species distribution modeling to enhance invasive plant watch lists

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Engelstad, Peder; LaRoe, Jillian; Hays, Brandon; Hogan, Terri; Jirak, Jeremy; Pearse, Ian S.; Prevéy, Janet S.; Sieracki, Jennifer L.; Simpson, Annie; Wenick, Jess; Young, Nicholas E.; Sofaer, Helen R.

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.101997

Cited by 13 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…There are many sources of the occurrence data of L. catesbeianus from different archives such as GBIF, HerpNet 49 . Many spatial distribution models have been used in various combinations incorporating environmental and biological factors more comprehensively 41 , 49 – 51 . To evaluate projected range changes of L. catesbeianus in potentially suitable areas under current and future climate conditions, Johovic et al 49 used several algorithms combined.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) spreading in the Republic of Korea using rule learning of elementary cellular automata

Oh,

Wi,

Kang

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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The spread of American Bullfrog has a significant impact on the surrounding ecosystem. It is important to study the mechanisms of their spreading so that proper mitigation can be applied when needed. This study analyzes data from national surveys on bullfrog distribution. We divided the data into 25 regional clusters. To assess the spread within each cluster, we constructed temporal sequences of spatial distribution using the agglomerative clustering method. We employed Elementary Cellular Automata (ECA) to identify rules governing the changes in spatial patterns. Each cell in the ECA grid represents either the presence or absence of bullfrogs based on observations. For each cluster, we counted the number of presence location in the sequence to quantify spreading intensity. We used a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to learn the ECA rules and predict future spreading intensity by estimating the expected number of presence locations over 400 simulated generations. We incorporated environmental factors by obtaining habitat suitability maps using Maxent. We multiplied spreading intensity by habitat suitability to create an overall assessment of bullfrog invasion risk. We estimated the relative spreading assessment and classified it into four categories: rapidly spreading, slowly spreading, stable populations, and declining populations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) spreading in the Republic of Korea using rule learning of elementary cellular automata

Oh,

Wi,

Kang

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…A quantification of SEI (Doherty et al, 2022) computed without the conifer threat component was used in these analyses to prioritize areas which demonstrate high ecological integrity in the absence of conifer cover. We incorporated the relative risk of 5 invasive annual grasses (cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), red brome ( Bromus rubens ), Japanese brome ( Bromus japonicus ), ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ), and medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae )) based on data from Boyd et al ( in Review ), which represents the product of current invasive annual grass cover (average from 2019-2022) derived from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (Allred et al, 2021) as well as modelled suitability for invasive annual grasses (Jarnevich et al 2023a, Jarnevich et al 2023b, Williams et al 2023). Landscape-level structural connectivity derived from a multi-scale model using a resistant Gaussian kernel approach (produced by Theobald et al, in Review ) was incorporated to represent broad ecosystem-level connectivity across the sagebrush biome.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Spatial Prioritization of Conifer Management to Defend and Grow Sagebrush Cores

Reinhardt,

Maestas,

Naugle

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Sagebrush ecosystems across the western U.S. are in decline due to numerous threats, including expansion of coniferous woodlands and forests. The interagency Sagebrush Conservation Design effort recently quantified sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to map remaining core sagebrush areas (relatively intact and functional sagebrush ecosystems) and understand spatial and temporal patterns of change relative to primary threats. This work identified conifer expansion as the second leading cause of decline in sagebrush ecological integrity biome wide. Here, we sought to create a spatial prioritization of conifer management that maximizes return-on-investment to defend and grow core sagebrush areas. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to incorporate a series of biome-level inputs including SEI, invasive annual grass cover and risk, structural connectivity, and conifer cover and expansion vulnerability into a single prioritization based on collaborative expert input. Our analysis identifies priority areas for conifer management across the sagebrush biome, simulates conifer treatments based on those priorities, and estimates potential changes in SEI as a result of targeted treatment. At a broad scale, we found that the highest priority areas for conifer management were largely located east of the Rocky Mountains. This represents a departure from recent landscape-level trends conifer management efforts in sagebrush systems, which were focused primarily pinyon-juniper expansion in the Great Basin. A majority (52%) of the highest priority areas are managed by the Bureau of Land Management, followed by a large proportion (26%) of priority areas located on privately-owned land - particularly in Wyoming and Montana. Targeting simulated conifer treatments using our prioritization resulted in higher within-core targeting percentages (≥93%) than business-as-usual efforts (23.8%), which would result in a four- to eight-fold reduction in the time to treat priority areas within cores. Finally, we demonstrate that these simulated treatments, targeted with our prioritization, have the capacity to improve SEI in and around treatment areas. This work provides an actionable path to 'Defend the Core' as outlined by the Sagebrush Conservation Design effort by helping conservationists more efficiently address conifer expansion in and around core sagebrush areas.

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Modelling the Symphyotrichum lanceolatum invasion in Slovakia, Central Europe

Michalová,

Hrabovský,

Kubalová

et al. 2024

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Symphyotrichum lanceolatum (Willd.) G. L. Nesom is an alien invasive species in Europe, where it presents a potential threat to natural habitats. Its rapid expansion in recent decades raises questions and concerns about the causes and consequences of its spread in Slovakia. We investigated natural and anthropogenic habitats along with topographic and environmental factors, including changing climatic conditions such as air temperature and precipitation totals to adjust prediction models of the species distribution. Using 19 various algorithms, the models for the past, present, and future were calculated based on 395 octoploid populations selected by flow cytometry. The models revealed the potential species distribution along rivers and in human settlements and its increasing during the period 1970–2060 from 23.6 to 53.85% of the territory as a result of climatic change. A conditional inference tree indicates that the expansion can be limited by a mean annual air temperature below 8 °C and a pH of soil less than 5.5. Therefore, there is a high probability of the further spread of S. lanceolatum across Slovakia.

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Invaders at the doorstep: Using species distribution modeling to enhance invasive plant watch lists

Cited by 13 publications

References 39 publications

Assessment of American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) spreading in the Republic of Korea using rule learning of elementary cellular automata

Assessment of American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) spreading in the Republic of Korea using rule learning of elementary cellular automata

A Spatial Prioritization of Conifer Management to Defend and Grow Sagebrush Cores

Modelling the Symphyotrichum lanceolatum invasion in Slovakia, Central Europe

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