Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes

Walter, Katharine S.; Pepin, Kim M.; Webb, Colleen T.; Gaff, Holly; Krause, Peter J.; Pitzer, Virginia E.; Diuk‐Wasser, Maria A.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.0834

Cited by 31 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Furthermore, the diversity from coastal CT was not significantly different than that from northern CT where babesiosis cases were first detected 15 years later. The maintenance of diversity across New England supports the theory that expansion was the result of a “pushing” population expansion, consistent with the stepping-stone hypothesis inferred by Walter and colleagues [8]. Notably different, however, were samples from NJ; their diversity was significantly less than those from every other site in our study; more than 70% of the parasite samples comprised the dominant type 4.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Lyme disease is now endemic all the way north into Canada, west to Ohio, and south as far as Virginia. Babesiosis, in constrast, lagged Lyme disease across these sites in time and in force of transmission [7, 8] and most cases were reported from coastal sites in the northeastern U.S. However, in the last two decades, risk for babesiosis has intensified across the northeastern U.S. [9, 10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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ZoonoticBabesia microtiin the northeastern U.S.: evidence for the expansion of a specific parasite lineage

Goethert

Molloy²,

Berardi³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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The recent range expansion of human babesiosis in the northeastern United States, once found only in restricted coastal sites, is not well understood. This study sought to utilize a large number of samples to examine the population structure of the parasites on a fine scale to provide insights into the mode of emergence across the region. 228 B. microti samples collected in endemic northeastern U.S. sites were genotyped using published Variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) markers. The genetic diversity and population structure were analysed on a geographic scale using Phyloviz and TESS, programs that utilize two different methods to identify population membership without predefined population data. Three distinct populations were detected in northeastern US, each dominated by a single ancestral type. In contrast to the limited range of the Nantucket and Cape Cod populations, the mainland population dominated from New Jersey eastward to Boston. Ancestral populations of B. microti were sufficiently isolated to differentiate into distinct populations. Despite this, a single population was detected across a large geographic area of the northeast that historically had at least 3 distinct foci of transmission, central New Jersey, Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. We conclude that a single B. microti genotype has expanded across the northeastern U.S. The biological attributes associated with this parasite genotype that have contributed to such a selective sweep remain to be identified.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ZoonoticBabesia microtiin the northeastern U.S.: evidence for the expansion of a specific parasite lineage

Goethert

Molloy²,

Berardi³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…(3.5) years earlier than the observed data ( Figure 2C). The estimated mean time lag between the first reported Lyme disease case in a first-degree neighboring county and any county was 7 (95% CI, [3][4][5][6][7][8] years (Figure 4). However, this lag decreased as the number of reporting first-degree neighboring counties increased (Figure 4) reporting status in predicting the probability of reporting Lyme disease cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Reporting in the Northeastern United States

et al. 2020

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IMPORTANCEThe incidence and geographic range of Lyme disease continues to increase in the United States because of the expansion of Ixodes scapularis, the species of tick that is the main Lyme disease vector. Currently, no dynamic model for the disease spread exists that integrates information of both acarological and human case surveillance data. OBJECTIVETo characterize the spatiotemporal spread of Lyme disease in humans among counties in US endemic regions. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study modeled the spread of Lyme disease county-level case reporting, accounting for county-level demographic factors, environmental factors associated with tick presence and human exposure, and the spatiotemporal association between counties. The analyses were conducted between January and August 2019. The setting was 1405 counties in the following regions of the United States: West North Central, East North Central, New England, Middle Atlantic, and the South. Assessments were based on publicly available Lyme disease case data reported to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) between January 2000 and December 2017. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Probability of reporting the first case of Lyme disease by county by year. RESULTSBetween 2000 and 2017, a total of 497 569 Lyme disease cases were reported to the CDC in the study area. Reporting a first case of Lyme disease was associated with a county's and county's neighbors' forest coverage, elevation, percentage of population living in the wildland-urban interface, tick presence, county's population size, proportion of neighbors reporting cases, and neighbors' years since first reporting. The model that included these variables showed high predictive power, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 81.1 (95% CI, 68.5-86.2). The model predicted the first reported Lyme disease case a mean (SD) of 5.5 (3.5) years earlier than was reported to the CDC, with a mean spread velocity estimated at 27.4 (95% CI, 13.6-54.4) km per year. Among 162 counties without reported cases, 47 (29.0%) had a high probability of reporting Lyme disease by 2018. The estimated mean time lag between the first reported case in a neighboring county and any county was 7 (95% CI, 3-8) years.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study's findings suggest that, if updated regularly and expanded geographically, this predictive model could enable states and counties to develop more specific Lyme disease prevention and control plans, including improved sensitization of the general population and medical community.

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“…Data illustrating the correlations between deer density and nymphal tick density at two sites in Connecticut (Redrawn from [63]). The top row of panels shows the relationship between deer density (deer km 22 ) and larval tick density (ticks 100 m 22 ) 1 year later that result from adult ticks (density not reported) feeding on deer in the previous year. The second row shows the relationship between larval tick density and nymphal tick density that fed larvae would moult into 1 year later.…”

Section: (B) Larval and Nymphal Tick Survival And Feeding Successmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lyme disease ecology in a changing world: consensus, uncertainty and critical gaps for improving control

Kilpatrick

Dobson

Levi

et al. 2017

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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217

222

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Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia, and the number of reported cases has increased in many regions as landscapes have been altered. Although there has been extensive work on the ecology and epidemiology of this disease in both Europe and North America, substantial uncertainty exists about fundamental aspects that determine spatial and temporal variation in both disease risk and human incidence, which hamper effective and efficient prevention and control. Here we describe areas of consensus that can be built on, identify areas of uncertainty and outline research needed to fill these gaps to facilitate predictive models of disease risk and the development of novel disease control strategies. Key areas of uncertainty include: (i) the precise influence of deer abundance on tick abundance, (ii) how tick populations are regulated, (iii) assembly of host communities and tick-feeding patterns across different habitats, (iv) reservoir competence of host species, and (v) pathogenicity for humans of different genotypes of Filling these knowledge gaps will improve Lyme disease prevention and control and provide general insights into the drivers and dynamics of this emblematic multi-host-vector-borne zoonotic disease.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

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Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes

Cited by 31 publications

References 61 publications

ZoonoticBabesia microtiin the northeastern U.S.: evidence for the expansion of a specific parasite lineage

ZoonoticBabesia microtiin the northeastern U.S.: evidence for the expansion of a specific parasite lineage

Current and Future Spatiotemporal Patterns of Lyme Disease Reporting in the Northeastern United States

Lyme disease ecology in a changing world: consensus, uncertainty and critical gaps for improving control

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