Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean

Fletcher, S. E. Mikaloff; Gruber, Nicolas; Jacobson, A. R.; Doney, Scott C.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Gerber, Marlène; Follows, Michael J.; Joos, Fortunat; Lindsay, Keith; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Mouchet, Anne; Müller, Simon; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

doi:10.1029/2005gb002530

Cited by 383 publications

(490 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…They compute the air-sea flux of CO 2 over grid boxes of 1 to 4 • in latitude and longitude. The ocean CO 2 sink for each model is normalised to the observations by dividing the annual model values by their average over 1990-1999 and multiplying this with the observationbased estimate of 2.2 GtC yr −1 (obtained from Manning and Keeling, 2006;McNeil et al, 2003;Mikaloff Fletcher et al, 2006). The ocean CO 2 sink for each year (t) in GtC yr −1 is therefore…”

Section: Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A mean ocean CO 2 sink of 2.2 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 for the 1990s was estimated by the IPCC (Denman et al, 2007) based on indirect observations and their spread: ocean/land CO 2 sink partitioning from observed atmospheric O 2 / N 2 concentration trends (Manning and Keeling, 2006), an oceanic inversion method constrained by ocean biogeochemistry data (Mikaloff Fletcher et al, 2006), and a method based on penetration timescale for CFCs (McNeil et al, 2003). This is comparable with the sink of 2.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 estimated by Khatiwala et al (2013) for the 1990s, and with the sink of 1.9 to 2.5 GtC yr −1 estimated from a range of methods for the period 1990-2009 , with uncertainties ranging from ± 0.3 to ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 .…”

Section: Observation-based Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Carbon Budget 2015

Quéré

Moriarty

Andrew

et al. 2015

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

668

485

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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO 2 , and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014), E FF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , E LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 . For the year 2014 alone, E FF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr −1 that took place during 2005-2014. Also, for 2014, E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 . G ATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014), reflecting a larger S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in E FF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0....

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Section: Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Observation-based Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Quéré

Moriarty

Andrew

et al. 2015

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

668

485

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“…Oceans play a key role in the mitigation of the increasing atmospheric pCO 2 . Approximately 25% of the total human emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere is accumulating into the ocean Mikaloff-Fletcher et al, 2006;Le Quéré et al, 2010;Sabine et al, 2011;Le Quéré et al, 2015). Without this buffer capacity of the oceans, the CO 2 content in the atmosphere would have been much higher and global warming and its consequences more dramatic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

et al. 2016

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Anthropogenic CO2 is a major driver of the present ocean acidification. This latter is threatening the marine ecosystems and has been identified as a major environmental and economic menace. This study aims to forecast from the thermodynamic equations, the acidification variation (ΔpH) of the Mediterranean waters over the next few decades and beyond this century. In order to do so, we calculated and fitted the theoretical values based upon the initial conditions from data of the 2013 MedSeA cruise. These estimates have been performed both for the Western and for the Eastern basins based upon their respective physical (temperature and salinity) and chemical (total alkalinity and total inorganic carbon) properties. The results allow us to point out four tipping points, including one when the Mediterranean Sea waters would become acid (pH<7). In order to provide an associated time scale to the theoretical results, we used two of the IPCC (2007) atmospheric CO2 scenarios. Under the most optimistic scenario of the “Special Report: Emissions Scenarios” (SRES) of the IPCC (2007), the results indicate that in 2100, pH may decrease down to 0.245 in the Western basin and down to 0.242 in the Eastern basin (compared to the pre-industrial pH). Whereas for the most pessimistic SRES scenario of the IPCC (2007), the results for the year 2100, forecast a pH decrease down to 0.462 and 0.457, for the Western and for the Eastern basins, respectively. Acidification, which increased unprecedentedly in recent years, will rise almost similarly in both Mediterranean basins only well after the end of this century. These results further confirm that both basins may become undersaturated (< 1) with respect to calcite and aragonite (at the base of the mixed layer depth), only in the far future (in a few centuries).

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“…The smallest increase in CO 2 absorption by the seas and oceans was calculated by Graven et al (2012), who estimated that this increase was 0.15 billion tonnes of C CO 2 /year in the period [1980][1981][1982][1983][1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990] The values provided by other researchers lie between these limits. The average increase based on all publications (Khatiwala et al, 2009;Mikaloff-Fletcher et al 2006;Assmann et al 2010;Graven et al 2012;Doney et al 2009;La Quere et al 2010) was estimated at 0.23±0.15 billion tonnes of C CO 2 /year and 0.33±0.13 billion tonnes of C CO 2 /year respectively.…”

Section: The Exchange Of Carbon Between the Major Subsystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of CO2 in the Earth’s ecosystem and the possibility of controlling flows between subsystems

Pawłowski

Cao

2014

Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi

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Streszczenie W artykule scharakteryzowano przepływy C02 w ekosystemie Ziemi. Omówiono zastosowania CO2 w różnych sektorach gospodarki: jako surowca do syntezy tworzyw i paliw, do ekstrakcji w przemyśle spożywczym i perfumeryjnym, do przenoszenia ciepła i chłodu w ciepłownictwie i chłodnictwie oraz do hodowli genetycznie zmodyfikowanych alg służących do produkcji biopaliw. Wskazano także na możliwości redukcji stężenia CO2 w atmosferze poprzez antropogeniczną mo- dyfikację naturalnych przepływów pomiędzy podsystemami w ekosystemie Ziemi.

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Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO₂ uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean

Cited by 383 publications

References 53 publications

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

The role of CO2 in the Earth’s ecosystem and the possibility of controlling flows between subsystems

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Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean

Cited by 383 publications

References 53 publications

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Thermodynamic Forecasts of the Mediterranean Sea Acidification

The role of CO2 in the Earth’s ecosystem and the possibility of controlling flows between subsystems

Contact Info

Product

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Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO₂ uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean