Inverse modeling of black carbon emissions over China using ensemble data  assimilation

Wang, Ping; Wang, H.; Wang, Y. Q.; Zhang, X. Y.; Gong, Sunling; Xue, Min; Zhou, Chen; Liu, H. L.; An, Xing Qin; Niu, Tao; Cheng, Yingfei

doi:10.5194/acp-16-989-2016

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…This underestimation may be attributed to the large negative bias from all participant models at site 24 (the Gucheng site). This station is located in the Hebei province, which is an industrial city, where air pollution is serious and BC emission is large (Wang et al, 2016c). Due to the low reactivity of BC in the atmosphere, the high uncertainty of BC in current emission inputs (Hong et al, 2017;Li et al, 2017b) may explain this underestimation.…”

Section: Observation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

MICS-Asia III: Multi-model comparison and evaluation of aerosol over East Asia

Chen¹,

Gao²,

Zhang³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Fourteen chemical transport models (CTMs) participate in the MICS&#8211;Asia Phase III Topic 1. Their simulation results are compared with each other and with an extensive set of measurements, aiming to evaluate the current multi&#8211;scale air quality models&#8217; ability in simulating aerosol species and to document similarities and differences among model performances, also to reveal the characteristics of aerosol chemical components over big cities in East Asia. In general, all participant models can reproduce the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of aerosol concentrations in the year 2010, and multi&#8211;model ensemble mean (EM) shows better performance than most individual models, with Rs ranging from 0.65 (NO3&#8722;) to 0.83 (PM2.5). Underestimations of BC (NMB&#8201;=&#8201;&#8722;17.0&#8201;%), SO42&#8722; (NMB&#8201;=&#8201;&#8722;19.1&#8201;%) and PM10 (NMB&#8201;=&#8201;&#8722;32.6&#8201;%) are simulated by EM, but positive biases are shown in NO3&#8722; (NMB&#8201;=&#8201;4.9&#8201;%), NH4+ (NMB&#8201;=&#8201;14.0&#8201;%) and PM2.5 (NMB&#8201;=&#8201;4.4&#8201;%). Simulation results of BC, OC, SO42&#8722;, NO3&#8722; and NH4+ among CTMs are in good agreements, especially over polluted areas, such as the eastern China and the northern part of India. But large coefficients of variations (CV&#8201;>&#8201;1.5) are also calculated over arid and semi&#8211;arid regions. This poor consistency among CTMs may attribute to their different processing capacities for dust aerosols. According to the simulation results in the six Asian cities from EM, different air&#8211;pollution control plans should be made due to their different major air pollutants in different seasons. Although a more considerable capacity for reproducing the concentrations of aerosol chemical compositions and their variation tendencies is shown in current CTMs by comparing statistics (e.g. RMSE and R) between MICS&#8211;Asia Phase II and Phase III, detailed process analysis and a fully understanding of the source&#8211;receptor relationship in each process may be helpful to explain and to reduce large diversities of simulated aerosol concentrations among CTMs, and these may be the potential development directions for future modeling studies in East Asia.

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Section: Observation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

MICS-Asia III: Multi-model comparison and evaluation of aerosol over East Asia

Chen¹,

Gao²,

Zhang³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…Among aerosol constituents, BC aerosols are considered as the strongest absorber of visible solar radiation and, thereby, a contributor to tropospheric warming (Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008;Gustafsson and Ramanathan, 2016). However, the magnitude of tropospheric radiative warming due to BC aerosols is highly uncertain and is classified with a medium to low-level understanding in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change-Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) (Myhre et al, 2013a, b;Wang et al, 2016;Boucher et al, 2016;Permadi et al, 2018a;Paulot et al, 2018;Dong et al, 2019). The direct radiative forcing (DRF) of BC averaged over the globe is estimated in the range 0.2-1 W m −2 (Myhre et al, 2013b;Bond et al, 2013;Gustafsson and Ramanathan, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Possible reasons suggested for the discrepancy between model and observations included, lack of BC emissions used as input, inadequate meteorology, and representation of aerosol treatment, and coarse resolution in the model (e.g. Santra et al, 2019;Kumar et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2016;Pan et al, 2015;Verma et al, 2011;Reddy et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wintertime radiative effects of black carbon (BC) over Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventoriesin CHIMERE

Ghosh

Verma

Kuttippurath

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. To reduce the uncertainty in the black carbon (BC) induced climatic impacts from the global and regional aerosol-climate model simulations, it is a foremost requirement to improve the prediction of modelled BC distribution. And that specifically, over the regions where the atmosphere is loaded with a large amount of BC, e.g., the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) in the Indian subcontinent. Here we present the wintertime radiative perturbation due to BC with an efficiently modelled BC distribution over the IGP in a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) chemical transport model, CHIMERE, implementing new BC emission inventories. The model efficiency in simulating the observed BC distribution was examined executing five simulations: Constrained and bottomup (Smog, Cmip, Edgar, Pku) implementing respectively, the recently estimated India-based constrained BC emission and the latest bottom-up BC emissions (India-based: Smog-India, and global: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research-V4 (EDGAR-V4) and Peking University BC Inventory (PKU)). A low estimated value of the normalised mean bias (NMB) and root mean square error (RMSE) from Constrained estimated BC concentration (NMB: < 17 %) and aerosol optical depth due to BC (BC-AOD) (NMB: 11 %) indicated that simulation with constrained BC emissions in CHIMERE could simulate the distribution of BC pollution over the IGP more efficiently than with the bottom-up. The large BC pollution covering the IGP region comprised of wintertime all-day (daytime) monthly mean BC concentration and BC-AOD from the Constrained, respectively, in the range 14–25 (6–8) µg m−3 and 0.04–0.08, with a strong correlation between the variance in BC emission and simulated BC mass concentration or BC-AOD. Five main hotspot locations were identified in and around Delhi (northern-IGP), Prayagraj (or Allahabad)-Varanasi (central-IGP), Patna-Palamu (upper/lower mideastern-IGP), and Kolkata (eastern-IGP). The wintertime radiative perturbation due to BC aerosols from the Constrained included a wide-spread enhancement in atmospheric radiative warming by 2–3 times and a reduction in surface cooling by 10 %–20 %, with net warming at the top of atmosphere (TOA) of 10–15 W m−2, compared to the atmosphere without BC, for which, a net cooling at the TOA was, although, exhibited. These perturbations were spotted being the strongest around megacities (Kolkata and Delhi), and were inferred as 30 %–50 % lower from the bottomup than the Constrained.

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“…Although current emission inventories agree quite well on the main emission sources and regions, there exist significant uncertainties in the emission factors and activity data, used for emission calculation, with recent observationally constrained estimations much higher than the ones traditionally used (Sun et al, 2019). In contrast to bottom-up emission inventories, top-down constrained methods (such as inverse modelling) focus at minimising the difference between simulated pollutant concentration, based on estimated emission flux, and measured pollutant concentration (Brioude et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2016b;Guerrette and Henze, 2017). These methods can provide spatially and temporally better resolved assessment of pollutant emissions, including BC, but are influenced by different sources of uncertainty, mainly from the insufficient evaluation of long-range transport of polluted air-masses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The determination of highly time resolved and source separated black carbon emission rates using radon as a tracer of atmospheric dynamics

Gregorič¹,

Drinovec²,

Ježek³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. We present a new method for the determination of the source specific black carbon emission rates. The methodology was applied in two different environments: an urban location in Ljubljana and a rural one in the Vipava valley (Slovenia, Europe), which differ in pollution sources and topography. The atmospheric dynamics was quantified using the atmospheric radon (222Rn) concentration to determine the mixing layer height for periods of thermally driven planetary boundary layer evolution. The black carbon emission rate was determined using an improved box model taking into account boundary layer depth and a horizontal advection term, describing the temporal and spatial exponential decay of black carbon concentration. The rural Vipava valley is impacted by a significantly higher contribution to black carbon concentration from biomass burning during winter (62 %) in comparison to Ljubljana (31 %). Results of the calculated black carbon emission rates in Ljubljana were in the range from 280 to 300 μg m−2 h−1 in spring and winter, respectively. Overall black carbon emission rate in Vipava valley were only 25 % lower compared to Ljubljana and were in the range from 210 to 240 μg m−2 h−1 in spring and winter, respectively. As expected, black carbon emissions from traffic prevail in Ljubljana and account for 80 % of emissions during winter; the traffic contribution in the Vipava valley was only 42 %. Different daily dynamics of biomass burning and traffic emissions was responsible for higher contribution of biomass burning to measured black carbon concentration, compared to the fraction of its emission rate. Coupling the high time resolution measurements of black carbon concentration with atmospheric radon concentration measurements can provide a useful tool for direct, highly time resolved measurements of the intensity of emission sources. Source specific emission rates can be used to assess the efficiency of pollution mitigation measures over longer time periods, thereby avoiding the influence of variable meteorology.

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Inverse modeling of black carbon emissions over China using ensemble data assimilation

Cited by 27 publications

References 29 publications

MICS-Asia III: Multi-model comparison and evaluation of aerosol over East Asia

MICS-Asia III: Multi-model comparison and evaluation of aerosol over East Asia

Wintertime radiative effects of black carbon (BC) over Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventoriesin CHIMERE

The determination of highly time resolved and source separated black carbon emission rates using radon as a tracer of atmospheric dynamics

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