Inverse Modeling of the Initial Stage of the 1991 Pinatubo Volcanic Cloud Accounting for Radiative Feedback of Volcanic Ash

Abstract

The way volcanic clouds evolve is very sensitive to the initial spatial 3D distributions of volcanic materials, which are often unknown. In this study, we conducted inverse modeling of the Mt. Pinatubo cloud using total ozone mapping spectrometer 2D mapping of Aerosol Index and SO2 loading during the first three post‐eruption days to estimate the time‐dependent emissions profiles and initial 3D spatial distributions of volcanic ash and SO2. We account for aerosol radiative feedback and dynamic lofting of volcanic ash in the inversion calculations for the first time. This resulted in a lower ash injection height (by 1.5 km for ash) than without ash radiative feedback. The Pinatubo eruption ejected ≈77% of fine ash at 12–23 km, ≈65% of SO2 at 18–25 km. In contrast with previous studies, which suggested that all volcanic materials were emitted above the tropopause, a significant fraction of SO2 (5.1 of 15.5 Mt) and fine ash (37.2 of 66.5 Mt) were ejected in the troposphere, where SO2 quickly oxidized into sulfate aerosol that is short‐lived in the troposphere. This explains the early presence of sulfate aerosols in the plume and why the models can reproduce the observed volcanic aerosols' optical depth (AOD), assuming lower‐than‐observed SO2 emission in the stratosphere. Despite the quicker than in observations build‐up of sulfate AOD, in a month after the eruption, the evolution of the Pinatubo AOD simulated using the obtained ash and SO2 initial distributions converges with the available stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment observations.

Initial conditions control transport of volcanic volatiles, forcing and impacts

“…A lot of studies have been conducted on the explosive eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 (Bluth et al, 1992;Guo et al, 2004;Robock, 2000;Ukhov et al, 2023). However, large uncertainties still exist in quantifying the amount of SO 2 injected into the stratosphere based on different observational (Bluth et al, 1992;Grant et al, 1992;Guo et al, 2004) and modelling (Dhomse et al, 2014;Jones et al, 2016;Mills et al, 2016;Niemeier et al, 2009;Quaglia et al, 2023;Stenchikov et al, 2021) studies.…”