Inverse modelling of CF&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and NF&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions in East Asia

Arnold, Tim; Manning, Alistair J.; Kim, Jooil; Li, Shanlan; Webster, Helen; Thomson, David J.; Mühle, Jens; Weiss, Ray F.; Park, Sunyoung; O’Doherty, Simon

doi:10.5194/acp-2017-1171

Cited by 2 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…20,000 particles per hour were transported backward in time for 30 days in NAME in a domain bounded at 5°S and 74°N and 55°E and 192°E. When particles are within the lowest m of the atmosphere, it was assumed that they interacted with the surface and could intercept emissions sources 17,23 . The NAME-HB framework uses a climatological a priori estimate of the mole fraction at the boundary of the domain from the NASA 3D GEOS Chemistry Climate Model 27 .…”

Section: Regional Atmospheric Chemical Transport Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Output from NAME was also used with the InTEM inversion framework (NAME-InTEM) 17 . Emissions and uncertainties were averaged across the 24 individual inversions thereby assuming 100% correlation between uncertainties in these separate inversions.…”

Section: Regional Inversion Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we used the NAME 14 and FLEXPART 15 models to simulate the transport of CFC-11 from potential sources to the measurement sites. Emissions were derived from the observed mole fractions using NAME and a hierarchical Bayesian "transdimensional" inverse method (denoted NAME-HB) 16 and the Bayesian Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling (NAME-InTEM) 17 . Inversions with FLEXPART used two independent analytical Bayesian frameworks (FLEXPART-MIT 18 and FLEXPART-Empa 19 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An analytical solution was found that minimized the residual between the model and the observations and the difference between the posterior and prior flux estimate, balanced by the uncertainties of both. The mole fraction baseline at each station was estimated in the inversion following Arnold et al (2018)17 . The variable resolution of the inversion grid was calculated and refined within InTEM based on the magnitude of the footprint and emissions from each grid box.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Rigby

Park

Saito

et al. 2019

Nature

188

182

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The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as the chlorofluorocarbons 1. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s 2. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, implies that global emissions have increased 3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source remain uncertain 3. Here we use high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, Republic of Korea and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations to investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We find that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 Gg yr-1 higher in 2014-2017 compared to 2008-2012, and the emissions increase arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (about 40-60%, or more) of the global CFC-11 emission rise. We find no evidence for a significant increase in emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where available data allow for the detection of regional emissions. Attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Multiple considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely the result of new Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS, UK, formerly the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)) contract 1028/06/2015 to the University of Bristol and the UK Meteorological Office. Ragged Point, Barbados is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA), contract RA-133-R15-CN-0008 to the University of Bristol. L.W., M.L.

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Section: Regional Atmospheric Chemical Transport Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Regional Inversion Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Rigby

Park

Saito

et al. 2019

Nature

188

182

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New metrology for radon at the environmental level

Röttger

Grossi

et al. 2021

Meas. Sci. Technol.

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Radon gas is the largest source of public exposure to naturally occurring radioactivity. However, radon is also a useful tracer for understanding atmospheric processes, assessing the accuracy of chemical transport models, and enabling integrated emissions estimates of greenhouse gases. A sound metrological system for low level atmospheric radon observations is therefore needed for the benefit of the atmospheric, climate and radiation protection research communities. To this end, here we present a new calibration method for activity concentrations below 20 Bq m−3 and a prototype of the first portable radon monitor capable of achieving uncertainties of 5% (at k = 2) at these concentrations. Compliance checking of policy-driven regulations regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an essential component of climate change mitigation efforts. Independent, reliable ‘top down’ methods that can be applied consistently for estimating local- to regional-scale GHG emissions (such as the radon tracer method (RTM)) are an essential part of this process. The RTM relies upon observed radon and GHG concentrations and measured or modeled radon fluxes. Reliable radon flux maps could also significantly aid EU member states comply with European COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2013/59/EURATOM. This article also introduces the traceRadon project, key aims of which include outlining a standardized approach for application of the RTM, creating infrastructure with a traceability chain for radon concentration and radon flux measurements, and developing tools for the validation of radon flux models. Since radon progeny dominate the terrestrial gamma dose rate, the planned traceRadon activities are also expected to improve the sensitivity of radiation protection early warning networks because of the correlation known to exist between radon flux and ambient equivalent dose rates.

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Inverse modelling of CF<sub>4</sub> and NF<sub>3</sub> emissions in East Asia

Cited by 2 publications

References 20 publications

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

New metrology for radon at the environmental level

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