Investigating age‐dependency of species extinction rates using dynamic survivorship analysis

Pearson, Paul Nicholas

doi:10.1080/10292389509380516

Cited by 23 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The planktic foraminifera, in contrast, generally show taxon age to be positively related to extinction [β > 1 (4,24,48,49)]; Doran et al (49) found, for the planktic foraminifera, significant positive age dependency of extinction in the long recovery periods following mass extinctions. The graptolites seem to show features of both these patterns.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is not clear whether the positive dependence of extinction risk on taxon age during the LOME indicates that a novel extinction mechanism was operating during this event or whether it represents simply an extreme expression of the processes operating during other severe extinction episodes. One possible mechanism for the high β-values is that when environmental change is severe and rapid enough, old species that were adapted to a previous environment become maladapted in the new environment, compared with newly evolving species, and are selectively removed (4).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Is the risk of plankton species extinction dependent on the amount of time since the species originated (3)? These questions have important implications for macroevolutionary process, stability of marine ecosystems, and modern biodiversity conservation (3)(4)(5). Here, using a new global data set of unparalleled temporal resolution, we attempt to answer these questions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They have been used extensively for correlation and zonation (7)(8)(9)(10), and the stratigraphic distributions of species are well documented. Thus, their observed stratigraphic ranges commonly are inferred to be good approximations of their true ranges in time, and empirical graptoloid range data have been used as examples of, or tests for, macroevolutionary rates (3,4,(11)(12)(13). Like most of the marine macroplankton, their evolutionary dynamics are interpreted to have depended closely on those of the microphytoplankton and bacterioplankton (13)(14)(15)(16), the primary producers in the food web and which, in the modern oceans, are sensitive indicators of oceanic circulation, nutrient flux, and global climate (1,17); in addition, they depended on physical properties of the water mass such as temperature and chemistry.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Crampton

Cooper

Sadler

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486−418 Ma). In conditions of "background" extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species ("background extinction mode"). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age ("high-extinction mode"). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed ("mass extinction mode"). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton.T he importance of the marine plankton in both the carbon cycle and in the food web that supports the diversity of marine life is undisputed. However, the evolutionary dynamics of planktic species and the factors controlling their diversity and evolutionary turnover are still poorly known (1, 2). This is particularly so for the Paleozoic, where problems of preservation and sampling bias, and poor time resolution, have precluded detailed analysis. How does the marine plankton respond to environmental perturbations arising from climate change over geological time? How does background extinction differ from episodic and mass extinction in the pelagic realm? Is the risk of plankton species extinction dependent on the amount of time since the species originated (3)? These questions have important implications for macroevolutionary process, stability of marine ecosystems, and modern biodiversity conservation (3-5). Here, using a new global data set of unparalleled temporal resolution, we attempt to answer these questions.The graptoloid clade (order Graptoloidea) constituted the main component of the early Paleozoic macrozooplankton from the beginning of the Ordovician to the Early Devonian (6). Graptoloids were colonial filter-feeding protochordates, generally ranging from a few millimeteres up to ∼200 mm in maximum dimension, which lived suspended in the water column in a range of depth zones. They have been used extensively for correlation and zonation (7-10), and the stratigraphic distributions of species are well docum...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Crampton

Cooper

Sadler

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Using this formula, Pearson described the variation in extinction rates with respect to the longevity of taxon or age dependency of extinction rates. This was contrasted with variation in extinction rates in real time or time dependency (Pearson, 1995). The CSS normalized timedependent information to leave age-dependent trends.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Extinction Age Dependent?

Doran

Arnold

Parker

et al. 2006

PALAIOS

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Age-dependent extinction is an observation with important biologicalimplications. Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis triggered three decades of research testing its primary implication: that age is independent of extinction. In contrast to this, later studies with specieslevel data have indicated the possible presence of age dependence. Since the formulation of the Red Queen hypothesis, more powerful tests of survivorship models have been developed. This is the first report of the application of the Cox Proportional Hazards model to paleontological data. Planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies allow the taxonomic and precise stratigraphic resolution necessary for the Cox model. As a whole, planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies clearly show age-dependent extinction. In particular, the effect is attributable to the presence of shorter-ranged species (range Ͻ 4 myr) following extinction events. These shorter-ranged species also possess tests with unique morphological architecture. The morphological differences are probably epiphenomena of underlying developmental and heterochronic processes of shorter-ranged species that survived various extinction events. Extinction survivors carry developmental and morphological characteristics into postextinction recovery times, and this sets them apart from species populations established independently of extinction events.

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