Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ebi, Kristie L.; Vicedo‐Cabrera, Ana M.; Gasparrini, Antonio

doi:10.1007/s00484-018-1556-9

Cited by 37 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The attributable fraction of mortality that is due to cold temperatures is in line with what has previously been reported in neighboring Stockholm, Sweden, where, during the period 2000–2013, approximately 5.4% of all-cause mortality could be attributed to non-optimal cold temperatures [6]. Åström et al [6] used year-round data, contrary to our focus on the cold season, which would imply that our estimates of the AF of cold temperatures may actually be conservative.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…We also calculated the AF of mortality due to modestly and extremely cold days. Modestly cold days were considered to be temperatures between the MMT and the 2.5th percentile and extremely cold days were those below the 2.5th percentile [6,7].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With ongoing climate change, the health effects of heat waves and high temperatures have been thoroughly documented throughout the world [1], in Europe [2,3,4], and specifically in Estonia [5]. Even though it is likely that more frequent heat waves will occur in the future, the climate in the Baltics is generally cold, and the majority of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures in these areas are likely due to cold temperatures, as has been reported for neighboring countries like Sweden [6] and Finland [3]. The impact of cold temperatures on mortality is a phenomenon that is not exclusive to northern countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga

et al. 2019

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Background and objectives: Despite global warming, the climate in Northern Europe is generally cold, and the large number of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures is likely due to cold temperatures. The aim of the current study is to investigate the association between cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, as well as cause-specific mortality, in Tallinn and Riga in North-Eastern Europe. Materials and Methods: We used daily information on deaths from state death registries and minimum temperatures from November to March over the period 1997–2015 in Tallinn and 2009–2015 in Riga. The relationship between the daily minimum temperature and mortality was investigated using the Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model considering lag times of up to 21 days. Results: We found significantly higher all-cause mortality owing to cold temperatures both in Tallinn (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.28, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.01–1.62) and in Riga (RR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.11–1.79). In addition, significantly increased mortality due to cold temperatures was observed in the 75+ age group (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.17–2.31) and in cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.31–2.55) in Tallinn and in the under 75 age group in Riga (RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.12–2.22). In this study, we found no statistically significant relationship between mortality due to respiratory or external causes and cold days. The cold-related attributable fraction (AF) was 7.4% (95% CI -3.7–17.5) in Tallinn and 8.3% (95% CI -0.5–16.3) in Riga. This indicates that a relatively large proportion of deaths in cold periods can be related to cold in North-Eastern Europe, where winters are relatively harsh.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga

et al. 2019

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“…For example, experts detected an increase in mortality caused by IHD and natural causes in Archangelsk during cold waves occurring in 1999-2008 [7]. Similar results were obtained in another northern city, Stockholm; research conducted there revealed that a number of additional death cases caused by heat had been decreasing over the last ten years whereas a number of additional death cases caused by cold remained stably high [21]. Most additional death cases caused by CSD and ROD were related to cold days in some cities in the USA [22], China [23,24], and many other regions [1].…”

Section: T a B L Ementioning

confidence: 74%

Universal thermal climate index (UTCI) applied to determine thresholds for temperature-related mortality

Shartova¹,

Shaposhnikov²,

Konstantinov³

et al. 2019

Health Risk Analysis

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Our research goal was to examine a response in mortality among population in Arkhangelsk caused by exposure to high and low temperatures. We determined the best available mortality predictor out of air temperature and Universal Thermal Climate Index that characterizes how people feel temperature and detected threshold temperatures depending on sex, age, and cause of death; under exposure to such temperatures there was a statistically authentic increase in mortality. We analyzed data on daily mortality among population and meteorological data collected in 1999-2016. Relative preciseness in calculating attributive fractions of additional mortality during all hot and cold days was taken as a numeric criterion for selecting the best predictor. All the calculations were accomplished basing on Poisson's regression model taking into account a non-linear dependence between mortality and weather with a distributed lag up to 21 days long. Although people in Arkhangelsk live in a climate with cold summer and moderately cold winter, we determined attributive fractions of mortality both for cold and heat. In summer high temperatures at night have greater effects on mortality than average daily ones. Differences in temperature-related mortality depend not only on age (people who are older than 65 are more vulnerable in this respect) but also on sex. We detected lower threshold heat temperatures for males as well as greater increase in mortality among them caused by exposure to cold. It is advisable to use different predictors to obtain the maximum precise characteristics for heat and cold stress. We recommend applying UTCI to determine threshold temperatures and additional mortality.

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“…While there is a general expectation in the future of greater heat extremes and fewer cold extremes [33], over time there has been some research that has suggested that while vulnerability to heat has decreased, vulnerability to cold has not [34]. Furthermore, several other studies show greater overall vulnerability to cold than heat (e.g., [3]), though the magnitude depends on whether extreme events or all events are considered.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mortality Response to Absolute and Relative Temperature Extremes

Sheridan

Lee

Allen

2019

IJERPH

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While the impact of absolute extreme temperatures on human health has been amply studied, far less attention has been given to relative temperature extremes, that is, events that are highly unusual for the time of year but not necessarily extreme relative to a location’s overall climate. In this research, we use a recently defined extreme temperature event metric to define absolute extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme cold events (ECE) using absolute thresholds, and relative extreme heat events (REHE) and relative extreme cold events (RECE) using relative thresholds. All-cause mortality outcomes using a distributed lag nonlinear model are evaluated for the largest 51 metropolitan areas in the US for the period 1975–2010. Both the immediate impacts and the cumulative 20-day impacts are assessed for each of the extreme temperature event types. The 51 metropolitan areas were then grouped into 8 regions for meta-analysis. For heat events, the greatest mortality increases occur with a 0-day lag, with the subsequent days showing below-expected mortality (harvesting) that decreases the overall cumulative impact. For EHE, increases in mortality are still statistically significant when examined over 20 days. For REHE, it appears as though the day-0 increase in mortality is short-term displacement. For cold events, both relative and absolute, there is little mortality increase on day 0, but the impacts increase on subsequent days. Cumulative impacts are statistically significant at more than half of the stations for both ECE and RECE. The response to absolute ECE is strongest, but is also significant when using RECE across several southern locations, suggesting that there may be a lack of acclimatization, increasing mortality in relative cold events both early and late in winter.

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Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

Cited by 37 publications

References 23 publications

Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga

Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga

Universal thermal climate index (UTCI) applied to determine thresholds for temperature-related mortality

The Mortality Response to Absolute and Relative Temperature Extremes

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