We developed a simulation game to study the effectiveness of decision-makers in overcoming two complexities in building cybersecurity capabilities: potential delays in capability development; and uncertainties in predicting cyber incidents. Analyzing 1,479 simulation runs, we compared the performances of a group of experienced professionals with those of an inexperienced control group. Experienced subjects did not understand the mechanisms of delays any better than inexperienced subjects; however, experienced subjects were better able to learn the need for proactive decision-making through an iterative process. Both groups exhibited similar errors when dealing with the uncertainty of cyber incidents. Our findings highlight the importance of training for decision-makers with a focus on systems thinking skills, and lay the groundwork for future research on uncovering mental biases about the complexities of cybersecurity. development. albeit inadvertently-introduce new, more subtle vulnerabilities. Research also suggests that attackers in cyberspace are not only rational and motivated by economic incentives [6], but also act strategically in identifying targets and approaches [7]-in other words, "The good guys are getting better, but the bad guys are getting badder faster" [8]. Perhaps there was a time a decade ago when cybersecurity was only a matter of "if" an organization was going to be compromised, but today it has become a question of "when," and "at what level."Despite the proliferation of cyberattack capabilities and their potential implications, many organizations still perform poorly with respect to cybersecurity management. These companies ignore or underestimate cyber risks, or rely solely on generic off-the-shelf cybersecurity solutions. A mere 19% of chief information security officers (CISOs) are confident that their companies can effectively address a cybersecurity incident [9]. In May 2017, the WannaCry ransomware attack-a type of malware that blocks access to computer systems until a ransom is paid-affected companies worldwide, even though a patch for the exploited Windows vulnerabilities had been made available by Microsoft months earlier in March 2017 [10]. As data grows in size and value, the increase of cyber risks and escalation of privacy concerns demand that managers improve their approach to cybersecurity capability development-interventions to build such capabilities typically include improvements to technology already in place, in addition to the purchase of new technology, talent acquisition, and training, among other activities.
Research objective and approachThe importance of being proactive in cybersecurity capability development is well understoodit is more cost effective than taking a reactionary approach and reduces failure rates [11].Although many executives and decision-makers are becoming aware of the significance of cybersecurity, a major question remains unanswered: Are experienced managers more proactive than inexperienced individuals in building cybersecurity capabilities? F...