“…Political articles focused on predicting presidential outcomes, a categorical target (Graefe, 2015, 2018; Graefe, Armstrong, Jones Jr, & Cuzán, 2014a, 2014b; Hurley & Lior, 2002; Morgan, 2014). Risk‐related targets were continuous and categorical: the probability of structural damage, nuclear fallout, occupational hazards, and balancing power load (Adams et al, 2009; Baecke et al, 2017; Brito et al, 2012; Brito & Griffiths, 2016; Cabello et al, 2012; Craig et al, 2001; Hathout et al, 2016; Jana et al, 2019; Kläs et al, 2010; Mu & Xianming, 1999; Neves & Frangopol, 2008; Ren‐jun & Xian‐zhong, 2002; Wang et al, 2008; Zio, 1996; Zio & Apostolakis, 1997). Public health papers predicted continuous targets over time, like forecasting carcinogenic risk (Evans et al, 1994) and US mortality rates (Alho, 1992).…”