Investigating the Degrowth Paradigm through prospective Modeling

Briens, François; Mäızi, Nadia

doi:10.14512/oew290342

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…In the field of forecasting IOTs, it is worth mentioning that Leontief himself evaluated the effects on employment of automation by exogenously applying qualitatively assessed variations of the United States A matrix (Leontief & Duchin, 1986). This qualitative assessment to evaluate different scenarios of the A Matrix evolution has also been used in Briens (2015) and Nietoet al (2020). Although a valid and useful approach to evaluate scenarios, it lacks an endogenous explanation of the drivers of structural change.…”

Section: Updating and Forecasting The Technical Coefficients Matrixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is energy intensity a driver of structural change? Empirical evidence from the global economy

Nieto

Pesquera

Moyano

et al. 2022

J of Industrial Ecology

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Input-output tables (IOTs) provide a relevant picture of economic structure as they represent the composition and interindustry relationships of an economy. The technical coefficients matrix (A matrix) is considered to capture the technological status of an economy; so, it is of special relevance for the evaluation of long-term, structural transformations, such as sustainability transitions in integrated assessment models (IAMs).The A matrix has typically been considered either static or exogenous. Endogenous structural change has rarely been applied to models. The objective of this paper is to analyze energy intensity, a widely used variable in IAMs, and its role as a driver of structural change. We therefore identify the most relevant technical coefficients in the IOTs time series and estimate an econometric model based on the energy intensity of five different final end-use energy sources. The results of this analysis show that energy intensity has a significant influence on the evolution of the A matrix and should therefore be taken into consideration when analyzing endogenous structural change in models.

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Section: Updating and Forecasting The Technical Coefficients Matrixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is energy intensity a driver of structural change? Empirical evidence from the global economy

Nieto

Pesquera

Moyano

et al. 2022

J of Industrial Ecology

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Can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy?

Larch

Löning

Wanner

2018

Ecological Economics

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Unilateral climate policy suffers from carbon leakage, i.e. the (partial) offset of the initial emission reduction by increases in other countries. Different than most typically discussed climate policies, degrowth not only aims at reducing the fossil fuel use in an economy, but rather at a reduction of all factor inputs, which may lead to different leakage implications. We conduct the first investigation of degrowth in a multi-country setting in order to (i) compare the leakage effects of national pure emission reduction policies to degrowth scenarios, (ii) identify underlying channels by decomposing the implied emission changes into scale, composition, and technique effects, and (iii) investigate which country characteristics determine degrowth's relative effectiveness to overcome the leakage problem. Using a structural gravity model, we find that degrowth indeed significantly reduces leakage by keeping the sectoral composition of the country more stable and reducing uncommitted countries' incentives to shift towards more energy-intensive production techniques. The higher effectiveness of degrowth in reducing carbon emissions is most pronounced for small and trade-open economies with comparatively clean production technologies.

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