Investigating the Impact of Custody on Reoffending Using Propensity Score Matching

Abstract

Although a range of opinions about the impact of incarceration on later offending have been articulated, there have been very few studies of sufficient methodological quality to allow the effect to be examined empirically. Drawing on a sample of 5,500 male offenders from 1 of 10 regions in the United Kingdom, propensity score matching was used to balance the preexisting differences between two groups of offenders: those who had been incarcerated for their index offense and those who had received community orders involving supervision. Both methods of balancing the group differences (matching/stratification) suggested that 1 year after release, offenders who had been incarcerated were significantly more likely to have committed another (proven) offense. These offenders also tended to commit more offenses and started reoffending earlier than those supervised in the community. Moreover, offenders who had originally been incarcerated were much more likely to be reincarcerated. In line with other emerging evidence, it was concluded that incarceration tends to slightly increase rather than decrease the chances of future offending. Limitations of the research are considered and directions for future research are explored.

A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence in the community

“…35 Although prior published studies have examined the association between imprisonment and recidivism, such studies have not focused on violence specifically, instead examining conviction for any crime. [36][37][38][39] Others have examined the effects of longer vs. shorter imprisonment or prison security level on future conviction or arrest for any crime. [40][41][42][43] Furthermore, much prior research on imprisonment and recidivism has been limited because unobserved individual characteristics could influence the "treatment" (imprisonment) and the outcome (violent crime), thus confounding attempts to attribute causality to imprisonment, a well-known problem with regression and matching methods that are common in this literature.…”

The Unintended Consequences of Being Stopped or Arrested: An Exploration of the Labeling Mechanisms Through Which Police Contact Leads to Subsequent Delinquency

“…In light of the advantages of propensity score matching, several recent studies examining the ramifications of justice system involvement adopted this approach for addressing selection bias. This research has been supportive of a labeling effect, but generally it has focused on the direct relationship between incarceration and offending (Jolliffe and Hedderman, ; Loughran et al., ; Nieuwbeerta, Nagin, and Blokland, ). Studies that have focused on offending outcomes after more common forms of police contact, such as being stopped or arrested, also have revealed some support for labeling theory (McAra and McVie, ; Morris and Piquero, ; Wiley and Esbensen, ).…”

Evaluating the impact of the London Pathway Project

“…This may be due to reduced opportunity to maintain a positive support network in custody coupled with an increase in the potential to be influenced by criminal associates in prison (e.g. Jolliffe and Hedderman, ).…”