Investigating the impact of Saharan dust aerosols on analyses and forecasts of African easterly waves by constraining aerosol effects in radiance data assimilation

Abstract

Abstract. This study incorporates aerosol effects into satellite radiance calculations within the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) to investigate its impact on the analyses and forecasts of African easterly waves (AEWs). Analysis fields from the aerosol-aware assimilation experiment were compared to an aerosol-blind control during August 2017. The results showed that the aerosol-aware assimilation warmed the Saharan boundary layer, accelerated the African easterly jet, and modified the time-averaged AEWs by enhancing the northern track and reducing the southern track. The changes to the tracks are qualitatively consistent with arguments of baroclinic and barotropic instability. During the time period, we also examined two AEWs that developed hurricanes Gert and Harvey over the Atlantic but were structurally different over Africa; the AEW for Gert consisted of a southern vortex, while the AEW for Harvey consisted of a northern and southern vortex. Analysis differences of the cases showed stronger vorticity changes for the AEW that developed Harvey, which we attribute to the aerosol-aware assimilation capturing the radiative effects of a large-scale Saharan dust plume interacting with the northern vortex of the wave. Subsequent forecasts for the AEW cases using the Global Forecast System (GFS, v14) showed that the aerosol-aware assimilation reduced errors in the downstream vorticity structure for the AEW that developed Harvey; neutral improvement was found for the AEW that developed Gert. Thus, aerosol-affected radiances in the assimilation system have the ability to account for dust radiative effects on the analyzed AEWs, which, in turn, can improve the forecasting of AEWs downstream.

A New Look into the Impacts of Dust Radiative Forcing on the Energetics of Tropical Easterly Waves

“…While previous studies showed the impacts of dust aerosols on climate (Ming and Ramaswamy, 2011;Hosseinpour and Wilcox, 2014;Chen et al, 2021;Liang et al, 2021;Grogan et al, 2022), hydrological cycle (Konare et al, 2005;Kim et al, 2010;Bercos-Hickey et al, 2020) and cloud properties (Weinzierl et al, 2017;Haarig et al, 2019), these elements of the climate system in this region exhibit strong variability due to AEWs.…”

“…They showed that the low-level temperature anomalies associated with the AEWs are modulated by dust radiative forcing and suggested that dust loading in the SAL precedes the maximum geopotential height at 700-hPa by about 1-2 days. Model sensitivity studies have also shown that the intensification of AEWs can be induced by dust (Ma et al, 2012;Grogan et al, 2019;Bercos-Hickey and Patricola, 2021;Grogan et al, 2022). The analytical and numerical study of Grogan et al (2016) found that the presence of dust enhances the development of AEWs by providing a buoyancy source.…”

The Saharan dust plume: Current knowledge on the impact on health, human activities, and the ecosystem, with comments on research gaps

“…The effect of dust on the radiative budget has lately been discussed by several researchers, including (Francis et al, 2023;Grogan et al, 2022;Saidou Chaibou et al, 2020) since this knowledge can help to lower associated uncertainty in climate models. Desert aerosols have an impact on the energy balance of the entire planet.…”