Investigating the Potential Climatic Effects of Atmospheric Pollution across China under the National Clean Air Action Plan

Abstract

To reduce air pollution, China adopted rigorous control mechanisms and announced the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) in 2013. Here, using OMI satellite, the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Application Center (SEDAC), and Fifth ECMWF (ERA5) data at a 0.25° × 0.25° resolution, we explored changes in NO2, PM, SO2, and O3 and climatology over China in response to the Action Plan between 2004 and 2021. This study attempts to investigate the long term trend analysis of air pollution and climatic variations during two scenarios before (2004–2013) and after (2013–2021) APPCAP. We investigated the climatic effects of air pollution in China before and after APPCAP adoption using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and differential models to assess the contribution of air pollution. The spatial representation analysis demonstrated how air pollution affected climatic factors before and after the APPCAP. Several important findings were derived: (1) the APPCAP significantly influenced air pollution reduction in China post-scenario (2013–2021); (2) the Mann Kendall test investigated that all pollutants showed an increasing trend pre-APPCAP, while they showed a decreasing trend, except for O3, post-APPCAP; (3) for climatic factors, the MK test showed an increasing trend of precipitation and mean minimum air temperature tmin post-APPCAP; (4) innovative trend analysis (ITA) showed a reduction in NO2, SO2, and PM, although O3 showed no trend post-APPCAP; and (5) pre-scenario, NO2 contributed to an increase in the mean maximum air temperature (tmax) by 0.62 °C, PM contributed to raising tmin by 0.41 °C, while O3 reduced the tmax(tmin) by 0.15 °C (0.05 °C). PM increased tmax and precipitation with a magnitude 0.38 °C (7.38 mm), and NO2 contributed to increasing tmin by (0.35 °C), respectively, post-scenario. In particular, post-scenario led to an increase in tmin and precipitation across China. The results and discussion presented in this study can be beneficial for policymakers in China to establish long-term management plans for air pollution and climatological changes.

Assessing Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change Through Dynamic Indexing Approach

“…However, since the onset of the industrial revolution in the 1750s, this balance has been disrupted (Hashimoto 2019;Ussiri and Lal 2017;Andrews et al 2022). The escalation in greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with pollutants, has altered the atmospheric energy balance by trapping radiated energy, leading to a 0.85-degree Celsius increase in the Earth's temperature (Dilawar et al 2023). Projections suggest a potential rise in the annual mean surface air temperature to 3.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios (IPCC 2013).…”