Investigating the presumed causal links between drought and dzud in Mongolia

Abstract

Extreme weather events present environmental and social challenges across the Eurasian steppe. In Mongolia much attention is given to drought and dzud (severe winter conditions) impact on rural livelihoods, landscapes and governance. A link between the two events, fostered by international and state agencies, speculates that drought leads to dzud; this has become the widely accepted doctrine. However, the relationship between the two events is assumed rather than analysed. Whilst there may be natural links between climate events, causality is more difficult to establish yet often claimed post-event. This paper stresses Mongolia's destructive dzuds of 1999-2001 and 2009-2010 in examining drought frequency before dzud events. Findings question the hazard connection as just 3 of 32 examined dzud events were preceded by drought. Investigation did not document a relationship between the disasters; linkages between extreme events were implied rather than established. The human role in disaster also needs to be assessed as preparation, and response are key factors for mitigation. Study results identified a lack of causality between the disasters, suggesting more assiduous investigation of hazards is needed in Mongolia. This can clarify causal factors, identify risk and improve disaster mitigation strategies in Mongolia.

Hidden treasure of the Gobi: understanding how water limits range use of khulan in the Mongolian Gobi

“…Under a warming climate (higher evaporation, increased heat stress of plants) or an increased disturbance regime, the need to access water can be expected to increase and may reduce the radius at which khulan can graze away from water, thus reducing the pasture area that is functionally available for the khulan population. Furthermore, the frequency of extreme events like droughts and extreme winters (both with no snow or extreme amounts of snow) is expected to further increase 52,53 . The high mobility of khulan and other migratory wild ungulates is the best strategy to cope with this uncertainty, but requires a high level of landscape connectivity 39,54 . conservation implications.…”

Medieval long-wall construction on the Mongolian Steppe during the eleventh to thirteenth centuries AD

“…Between 2000 and 2002 and again in the winter of 2009, for example, intense cold conditions killed 10.8 and 10.3 million head of livestock, respectively. In some regions of Mongolia, between 20 and 40 per cent of all livestock perished during these extreme events, causing the mass migration of herders who had lost their livelihood to the capital city of Ulaanbaatar (Rao et al 2015;Sternberg 2016).…”

Understanding urbanization and its impact on the livelihood levels of urban residents in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

“…The second high tide of the increasing urbanization level was from 2009 to 2015. The mining boom (Mayer, ) combined with the dzud disaster (Sternberg, ) forced over 30,000 nomads to move to Ulaanbaatar from 2009 to 2010 (See Figure ). This short‐term rapid growth of urban population led to an increase in the level of urbanization from 30.24% in 2008 to 38.03% in 2010 (see Figure ).…”

“…The dzud can result from a variety of factors. For example, a “drought dzud ” is caused by a lack of rainfall, which makes forage grass scarce and it is difficult for livestock to survive (Sternberg, ); a “white dzud ” is caused by a prolonged extreme snowy winter, which makes animals unable to find feed, and they die in large numbers (Belt, ; Tachiiri et al, ; Morris, ); a “combined dzud ” is caused by the deep snow and sudden temperature drop that makes animals die in large numbers (Field & IPCC, ).…”