Investigation into the rationale of migration intention due to air pollution integrating the Homo Oeconomicus traits

Abstract

Air pollution is a considerable environmental stressor for urban residents in developing countries. Perceived health risks of air pollution might induce migration intention among inhabitants. The current study employed the Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) to investigate the rationale behind the domestic and international migration intentions among 475 inhabitants in Hanoi, Vietnam – one of the most polluted capital cities worldwide. We found that people perceiving more impacts of air pollution in their daily life are more likely to have migration intention. The effect of perceived air pollution impact on international migration intention is stronger than that of domestic migration. Acknowledging a family member’s air pollution-induced sickness moderated the association between perceived air pollution impact and domestic migration intention, while the personal experience of air pollution-induced sickness did not. In contrast, the moderation effect of personal experience of sickness became significant in the international migration circumstance, but the effect of information about a family member’s sickness was trivial. The findings suggest that urban inhabitants’ consideration of air pollution averting strategies reflects some characteristics of Homo Oeconomicus. Additionally, the individual’s socio-economic decision is seemingly insignificant on a social scale. Still, through environmental stressors as catalysts, such decisions might result in considerable social outcomes (e.g., internal migration and emigration).

Brain Drain out of the Blue: Pollution-Induced Migration in Vietnam

“…Nevertheless, educational level is only one of many factors that must be considered when pondering upon a lifetime decision, like migration. Vuong, Le, Nguyen, and Nguyen [ 51 ] suggested that some traits of Homo oeconomicus , who always acts to maximize the economic benefits, might also affect the inhabitants’ migration consideration due to air pollution. Some distance costs (e.g., finance, culture shock) exist when migrating to a new place [ 65 , 66 ], so younger, highly educated people would have more time to regain such loss.…”

“…BMF utilizes the mindsponge mechanism of information processing as the theoretical foundation and employs Bayesian inference to construct statistical analysis. Since its original conception [ 49 , 50 ], the mindsponge mechanism has been expanded and proven to be effective in explaining how ideation occurs in the human mind based on subjective cost-benefit evaluation [ 48 , 51 ]. It is also essential when dealing with complex information processes [ 52 ].…”

Air pollution and emigration behaviors – evidence of Hanoi

“…There have been many studies carried out to find out the impact of air pollution on the lives of people in the urban cities [7,8], which inspire to conduct this study. This study is a part of assignment project of Introduction to Statistics and Probabilities class, which attempts to enlighten up the fact as to why the local government should take steps to improve the air quality and also verifies the effects of population migration caused by air pollution.…”