Although
ethanol remains the dominant liquid biofuel in the global
market, there is a strong interest in high-energy density and low-hygroscopicity
compounds that can be incorporated into gasoline at levels beyond
the current ethanol blend wall. Isopentenol (3-methyl-3-buten-1-ol)
is one of these promising advanced biofuels that is also an important
precursor for isoprene (the main component of natural rubber). In
this study, we model the production cost, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
and water footprint of biologically produced isopentenol, including
the current state of the technology and the impact of potential improvements.
We find that the minimum selling price of biobased isopentenol, given
the current state of technology demonstrated at bench-scale, is $5.14/L-gasoline
equivalent, and the GHG footprint exceeds that of gasoline. However,
biobased isopentenol could reach a $0.62/L-gasoline equivalent [$2.4/gal-gasoline
equivalent (gge), just 5% above the 10-year average gasoline price]
in an optimized future case where yield and other process parameters
are pushed to near their theoretical limits. In this future case,
isopentenol could achieve a GHG reduction of 90% relative to gasoline
and a carbon abatement cost of $9.3/metric ton CO2e. Reaching
these goals will require dramatic improvements in isopentenol yield,
near-100% recovery of ionic liquid used in pretreatment, and low-lignin
and high-cellulose and -hemicellulose biomass feedstocks.