Investigation of Cyclic Properties of Solar and Geomagnetic Activities: Implication for Global Surface Temperature Variability

Abstract

The cyclic properties of solar-geomagnetic activity and global surface temperature have been investigated using trend, frequency and time-frequency analyses. Results reveal that on decadal-to-centennial timescales, low-frequency cycles in the half-century (~49 to 56 years per cycle) and Gleisberg (~99 to 114 years per cycle) range run in the background of the Schwabe (~9 to 11 years per cycle) as the dominant cycle of solar-geomagnetic activity. The only dominant cycle in the global surface temperature series is the half-century cycle and suggests a possible causal link between it and solar-geomagnetic activity phenomena. Evolution of the amplitudes of the cycles is such that the Schwabe and Gleisberg periods have increased in power from the beginning of the series until the mid-20th century after which they declined. The half-century cycle decreased in amplitude after 1800 to the present. For geomagnetic activity, the amplitude of Gleisberg cycle increased from the beginning of the series around 2000 while the amplitudes of Schwabe and half-century cycles declined within the same interval, except the Schwabe cycle which amplitude increased rapidly after 1980 to the present. For the global surface temperature, the amplitudes of Gleisberg and half-century cycles have continuously increased from the beginning of the series while Schwabe cycle oscillates with very low amplitudes until 1980 after which it increased slightly. Evolution of the amplitudes of cycles of solar-gemagnetic activity suggests a recovery from Maunder Minimum and decline into a grand epsode most likely to be a minimum.