Investigation of household private car ownership considering interdependent consumer preference

Abstract

People are connected by various social networks, resulting in the interdependence of consumer choice. Therefore, it is very important and realistic to assume choice interdependence in private car ownership modeling. In this paper, we investigate the interdependence of private car ownership choice using a spatial autoregressive binary probit model estimated by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Constructing the autoregressive matrix demographically shows that the private car ownership choice of a household is dependent on other household choices. Compared with the pure binary probit model estimated by the MCMC method, the spatial autoregressive model achieves a significant improvement both in loglikelihood value and log marginal density value, which are calculated using the importance sampling method of Newton and Raftery, from approximately -202 to approximately -63 and from -208 to -145, respectively. Moreover, the results indicated by the spatial autoregressive probit model suggest that the number of children, the ownership of an apartment or the availability of a parking lot are positively and significantly associated with the private car ownership level. To test the out-of-sample performance of the model, we estimate the model using 600 data points and test it using another 148 data points. The results indicate that the predictive power is greatly improved. Finally, we analyze the augmented parameter and discover that it is associated with the parking variable in addition to the license variable.

Trends, Enablers, and Barriers for Car Ownership

“…The factor of residential location also has a relevant impact on car ownership ( 40 ). Living in apartments or near parking lots positively influences car ownership ( 34 ). When it comes to parking lots, availability affects both car ownership and car use ( 55 ).…”

“…Graduation from college, birth ( 34 ), or adopting a child are all events associated with increases in car ownership, while separation is associated with decreases ( 35 ). Incidentally, the number of children ( 36 ) is positively and significantly related to the level of car ownership ( 34 ).…”

“…Graduation from college, birth ( 34 ), or adopting a child are all events associated with increases in car ownership, while separation is associated with decreases ( 35 ). Incidentally, the number of children ( 36 ) is positively and significantly related to the level of car ownership ( 34 ). Likewise, car ownership intentions increase when the number of family members is higher ( 22 ), as well as in the context of families composed of couples with children ( 31 ).…”

“…In Italy, car-use-related responsibility was found to negatively impact car ownership ( 23 ); that is, many people do not wish to be responsible for, cleaning, maintenance, paying taxes, as well as looking for a parking space. Furthermore, the decision not to own a car may be influenced by neighbors, friends, respected people, or social networks ( 34 ).…”

“…At the same time, places with restrictive measures for vehicles hamper the increase in car ownership ( 34 , 43 , 52 , 82 ), since such measures, like quotas, may encourage new sharing mobility services, altering the local culture in relation to car ownership. In China, restrictive purchase policies have provided stability in the level of car ownership even as the economy is growing ( 82 ).…”