Investigation of temperature and precipitation variations of Yazd-Ardakan basin with SDSM under the conditions of future climate change

Abstract

One of the most important international issues is increasing of global warming and global climate change. Global warming and temperature peaks in recent decades, especially in the 1990s, have increased, and recorded the world's warmest year in the last 150 years in 2016. Changes in temperature and precipitation are in line with the changes in the large hydrological cycle and have caused wide variations in climate, such as atmospheric changes, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme temperatures. The aim of this study was to investigate temperature and precipitation changes in the Yazd-Ardakan basin and ten stations were used to study temperature and precipitation during the period 1975-2005.The results indicate a rise in temperature of 0.5 °C in the Yazd-Ardakan plain in the 30 year period of 2016-2045 The result is consistent with the IPCC forecast that global warming is set at 0.2 °C per decade. Also the results of the model output show that the average rainfall variation of stations is 8.8 percent lower than the average observation period. The monthly precipitation of stations indicates a decrease in winter rainfall and an increase in precipitation in the spring, a subject that confirms the rainfall data of the stations in the current situation. Future climate change in the environmental issues of Yazd province, especially in the field of water, can affect the future and its sustainability.