Investigation of the Probability of a Safe Evacuation to Succeed in Subway Fire Emergencies Based on Bayesian Theory

Wang, Jinghong; Yan, Wenyu; Han, Xu; Zhi, Youran; Wang, Zhirong; Jiang, Juncheng

doi:10.1007/s12205-018-0620-7

Cited by 26 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In the case of imbalanced training materials, problems such as gender discrimination and racial discrimination will occur, which is prone to bias. Bayesian probability control [23,24] Bayesian probabilistic control should measure the confidence of an individual for an uncertain proposition and use this property to control it, so it is subjective in this sense. Using the probability theory proposed by Bayes, we can examine the sensitivity of decision-making.…”

Section: Conclusion and Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of Some Intelligent Control Structures and Dedicated Algorithms

Chang¹,

Chu²,

Lin³

et al. 2021

Automation and Control

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Automatic control refers to the use of a control device to make the controlled object automatically run or keep the state unchanged without the participation of people. The guiding ideology of intelligent control is based on people's way of thinking and ability to solve problems, in order to solve the current methods that require human intelligence. We already know that the complexity of the controlled object includes model uncertainty, high nonlinearity, distributed sensors/actuators, dynamic mutations, multiple time scales, complex information patterns, big data process, and strict characteristic indicators, etc. In addition, the complexity of the environment manifests itself in uncertainty and uncertainty of change. Based on this, various researches continue to suggest that the main methods of intelligent control can include expert control, fuzzy control, neural network control, hierarchical intelligent control, anthropomorphic intelligent control, integrated intelligent control, combined intelligent control, chaos control, wavelet theory, etc. However, it is difficult to want all the intelligent control methods in a chapter, so this chapter focuses on intelligent control based on fuzzy logic, intelligent control based on neural network, expert control and human-like intelligent control, and hierarchical intelligent control and learning control, and provide relevant and useful programming for readers to practice.

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Section: Conclusion and Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of Some Intelligent Control Structures and Dedicated Algorithms

Chang¹,

Chu²,

Lin³

et al. 2021

Automation and Control

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show abstract

“…Bayesian theory has been widely used in natural science, engineering technology, medicine, environmental science, insurance actuarial science, economy and other fields [11][12][13][14]. In Bayesian analysis, the loss function plays a critical role in the final estimation result.…”

Section: ( ; )mentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Exponential Distribution Model under a New Loss Function

Ren¹

2018

IJPE

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Loss function is an important content in Bayes statistical inference. The task of this article is to study the reliability analysis of the exponential model based on a new proposed symmetric loss function. The new proposed loss function is established on the basis of the LINEX asymmetric loss function. Firstly, the Bayes estimation of the parameter is derived under the prior distribution of the parameter based on non-information Quasi prior distribution, and then the admissibility of the estimators are also discussed. Furthermore, this paper puts forward a novel testing procedure to evaluate the lifetime performance of exponential products based on the new derived Bayes estimator. Finally, Monte Carlo statistical simulation and an applicable example are used to illustrate that the new proposed Bayes estimators and testing procedure are effective and feasible.

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“…e influence of passengers' internal knowledge and safety risk awareness on escaping from danger is analyzed. Wang et al [18] established a dynamic evacuation risk analysis model considering psychological and behavioral responses of evacuees by using event tree analysis (ETA). Hong et al [19] used the principle of ripple effect to simulate the dissemination and acquisition of information in panic, and at the same time, considered the self-organization of group behavior and modeled the phenomenon of passengers' selfevacuation in the emergency of subway station.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Spreading Model of Passenger Group Panic considering Official Guidance Information in Subway Emergencies

Tang

Wang

2019

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Safety concerns are increasing as rail transportation develops at a fast pace. When emergencies erupt in the course of transportation, panic will spread among passengers. Subway operators should understand how the emotions of passengers spread and how the guidance instructions work, in order to effectively deter the transmission of panic. Based on the models of system dynamics, transmission dynamics, and contagious disease, the essay constructs a dynamic transmission model for passenger panic inside the carriage, incorporating the official guidance instructions. Then, the essay utilizes Routh–Hurwitz criteria and analyzes the stability equilibrium of the dynamic differential equation. Mathematical analysis and simulation tests have verified the validity of the model and stability conditions. Finally, it is proved in the essay by mathematical analysis and simulation tests that official guidance instructions can effectively control the spread of panic and quickly stabilize the system. Thus, the essay helps subway operators to come up with clear official guidance, so as to find quick solutions and prevent escalation of panic due to lack of trust.

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Investigation of the Probability of a Safe Evacuation to Succeed in Subway Fire Emergencies Based on Bayesian Theory

Cited by 26 publications

References 23 publications

Overview of Some Intelligent Control Structures and Dedicated Algorithms

Overview of Some Intelligent Control Structures and Dedicated Algorithms

Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Exponential Distribution Model under a New Loss Function

Dynamic Spreading Model of Passenger Group Panic considering Official Guidance Information in Subway Emergencies

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