Investigation of time-fractional SIQR Covid-19 mathematical model with fractal-fractional Mittage-Leffler kernel

Adnan, Adnan; Ali, Amir; Rahman, Mati ur; Arfan, Muhammad; Shah, Zahir; Deebani, Wejdan

doi:10.1016/j.aej.2022.01.030

Cited by 20 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…19 The number of infected individuals can be reduced through mass testing, but the implementation of strict and immediate quarantine leads to reductions of about 90% in the total number of cases. 17 It was observed that the numbers of cases of COVD-19 are much higher than those confirmed by SEMUS-Codó. Until May 11, 2021, the number of confirmed cases was 5,466.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Generally, rapid tests are mostly applied to symptomatic individuals, disregarding the huge potential for asymptomatic infected people, since the numbers of infected and unconfirmed cases grow faster than the number of confirmed cases. 12,17 When we use 40% for healthy population in social distancing, as in figure 1(A), COVID-19 cases peaked with more than 10,000 cases, and when we put 40% for infectious population in isolation, the case numbers reached its peak with approximately 5,000 cases, as we can see in figure 2(C), with a large decrease in cases.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…There are many unreported cases because of the huge group of asymptomatic infected people. [12][13][14]17 In an epidemic forecasting study in Shanghai, the rate of asymptomatic infections was very high, at around 90%. 18 Based on these works and projections, we can suggest that the factors that contributed to high underreporting were the large number of asymptomatic cases and the lack of rapid tests.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…And the number of infected individuals can be reduced through mass testing. 17 With all compartments of the SIQR model, Figure 3(E), initially, there are many susceptible people, becau-…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelo epidemiológico para construção de cenários da disseminação da COVID-19 em Codó-MA

Lisboa dos Santos,

Da Silva Rodrigues

2023

Rev Epidemiol Control Infect

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Justificativa e objetivos: devido ao aumento do número de casos do novo coronavírus na cidade de Codó-MA, viu-se a necessidade para fazer um estudo sobre a propagação da COVID-19 no município para a ter melhor conhecimento e entendimento do problema. Foi realizado um estudo sobre a disseminação da COVID-19 na cidade de Codó-MA, sendo comparados os dados quantitativos dos números de casos nos anos de 2020 e 2021 entre os meses de maio e julho e utilizando o modelo epidemiológico Suscetíveis-Infecciosos-Isolados-Recuperados (SIQR). Métodos: coletamos os dados diários dos boletins epidemiológicos disponibilizados pela Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Codó (SEMUS-Codó), escolhemos o modelo compartimental SIQR para a realização das simulações, supomos hipóteses e estimamos os parâmetros para podermos projetar os cenários. Simulamos cenários, tais como distanciamento social dos indivíduos sadios e isolamento social dos indivíduos infectados. Resultados: no início de 2020, os casos aumentaram com mais frequência do que no início de 2021, e aproximadamente 20% dos infectados estavam em isolamento social. De acordo com as projeções, mais de 80% dos casos de COVID-19 não foram contabilizados em Codó. Em 2021, houve maior subnotificação do que em 2020, aproximadamente 82% e 85%, respectivamente. Conclusão: a partir dos resultados, os autores concluem que o isolamento social dos infectados é um método mais eficiente para conter uma epidemia do que o bloqueio total da população e que o alto número de casos subnotificados são porque a maioria desses casos são assintomáticos.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…And the number of infected individuals can be reduced through mass testing. 17 With all compartments of the SIQR model, Figure 3(E), initially, there are many susceptible people, becau-…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modelo epidemiológico para construção de cenários da disseminação da COVID-19 em Codó-MA

Lisboa dos Santos,

Da Silva Rodrigues

2023

Rev Epidemiol Control Infect

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“…For instance, FFOs have been used in the modelling and analysis of HIV infection [24]. The current pandemic COVID-19 has also been investigated with the help of FFOs [25]. Other dangerous and fatal disease like tumor has been studied under nonsingular fractal fractional operator [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a TB and HIV co-infection model under Mittag-Leffler fractal-fractional derivative

Li¹,

Ahmad²,

Rahman³

et al. 2022

Phys. Scr.

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In this paper, the nonlocal operator with the Mittag-Leffler kernel is used to analyze a TB-HIV co-infection model with recurrent TB and exogenous reinfection. The non-negative invariant region and basic reproduction number of the proposed model are demonstrated. By using the Krasnosel- skii fixed result, we investigate that the TB-HIV co-infection model possesses at least one solution. We look at the existence of a unique solution using Banach’s fixed point theorem. Functional analysis is used to demonstrate Ulam-Hyres stability. The numerical solution of the given model is obtained using the Adams-Bashforth technique. We illustrate the achieved results by studying the co-infection of TB and HIV for different fractional and fractal orders.

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Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination

et al. 2023

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This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate , the rate of first vaccine dose , the second dose vaccination rate and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population.

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Investigation of time-fractional SIQR Covid-19 mathematical model with fractal-fractional Mittage-Leffler kernel

Cited by 20 publications

References 40 publications

Modelo epidemiológico para construção de cenários da disseminação da COVID-19 em Codó-MA

Modelo epidemiológico para construção de cenários da disseminação da COVID-19 em Codó-MA

Analysis of a TB and HIV co-infection model under Mittag-Leffler fractal-fractional derivative

Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination

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