Is a Food Shortage Coming to the Western Balkans?

Abstract

In the wake of the international food crisis, many countries are paying more attention to food self-sufficiency to protect themselves from instability in the global food markets. Western Balkan region and the rest of the world are facing an array of challenges, including inflation and rising food prices. Recognizing the importance of producing sufficient food to cover a country’s needs in circumstances of increasing risk of trade disruptions due to war or political tensions, this article aims to find the level of food self-sufficiency in the Western Balkan countries. The self-sufficiency ratio is calculated for different food groups and individual products over a 14-year period (2006–2019) based on the FAO data and calculation method. Also, using panel data, the impact of different factors—arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency, temperature change, precipitation, and GDP per capita change—on cereals self-sufficiency is estimated. Results showed that in the covered pre-crisis period, the Western Balkans achieved a satisfactory level of food self-sufficiency, suggesting that the region is ready to respond to future challenges. Four indicators positively and significantly affect cereal self-sufficiency: arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency and GDP per capita change, while one indicator—temperature change—had a negative and significant effect. This article can serve as a basis for post-crisis research on the topic.

Estimation of contribution of production factors to an agricultural output change in emerging and developing Europe

“…In addition to the negative environmental effect, the crisis in Ukraine also caused the problem of the availability of mineral fertilizers due to the import dependence of certain countries on Russia. According to Brankov and Matkovski (2022), the problem of mineral fertilizer availability can lead to reduced use and lower yield in the countries of the Western Balkans, so these countries should influence the strengthening of domestic capacities for fertilizer production, but also the use of practices and techniques that will increase the sensitivity of plants to the used mineral fertilizer.…”

The firm geography of Central and Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans

“…It is of utmost importance to address the array of challenges faced by the Western Balkans, including inflation and rising food prices, which have the potential to impact food security and economic stability in the region [37]. The region's economic relations with the EU remain predominant, despite other external influences [38].…”

Regional Economic Environment: Insights from North Macedonia’s Agricultural Sector

“…Agriculture is commonly seen as a crucial sector in producing the necessary products for human existence and a healthy life. Agricultural development must meet few fundamental dimensions: to enable sufficient quantity of food, to have enough resources to regularly produce food, to implement know-how for reasonable food production, and to maintain stable availability of food (Brankov & Matkovski, 2022;Ericksen, 2008). Defining the role of agriculture in the macro-perspective is critical to identifying the relationship between the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy (Barrett et al, 2010).…”

“…driving growth and development (Beckman & Countryman, 2021; Bournaris et al, 2016; Erol et al, 2011; Loizou et al, 2019; Mattas & Loizou, 2017;Wu et al, 2012), especially when it comes to economic sustainability(Johnston & Mellor, 1961).In addition, plenty is discussed on the turbulent business environment and the effects on agriculture generally by arguing the global economic crises(Apostolidou et al, 2015;Erol et al, 2011;Krugman, 2013), the functioning of the world markets and distortions(Blandford & Hill, 2006;Brankov & Matkovski, 2022), etc.Among the most extensive was the attention that COVID-19 had to the agricultural sector. Due to broken supply chains throughout the world, several nations implemented export limits to protect their local food supplies(Casey & Cimino-Isaacs, 2020; IFPRI, 2020) and concentrated on ensuring global food security (Beackman et al, 2021; Torero, 2020).…”