Is climate change the most likely driver of range expansion for a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters?

Votier, Stephen C.; Bearhop, Stuart; Attrill, Martin J.; Oro, Daniel

doi:10.1098/rsbl.2007.0558

Cited by 23 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The major drawback of correlation analyses is that a statistical correlation between 2 variables does not necessarily imply a cause-effect relationship (Votier et al 2008). Leaving this problem aside, in most studies advocating the use of seabirds as indicators there is a lack of consideration of the difficulties of 'inverse inference' (Box 2), i.e.…”

Section: Inverse Inferencementioning

confidence: 99%

Pros and cons of using seabirds as ecological indicators

Durant¹,

Hjermann²,

Frederiksen³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

110

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Climate change and overfishing are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems (e.g. shifts in species dominance). In order to understand and anticipate these changes, there is a crucial need for indicators that summarise large quantities of information into a few relevant and accessible signals. Seabirds have been suggested as good candidates for ecological indicators of the marine environment; however, few studies have critically evaluated their value as such. We review the role of seabirds as ecological indicators, and discuss their limitations and drawbacks, as compared to other types of indicators. In addition, we highlight the statistical consequences of inverse inference when using seabird data as indicators. We discuss the use of integrated indices and the use of seabirds as autonomous samplers of the marine environment. Finally, we highlight the necessary steps preceding the use of seabirds as indicators. We conclude that, in order to use seabird time series properly, the use of recent advances both in statistics and in remote sensing is a way to move forward. This, along with the assessment of their usefulness, should enable us to use seabird indicators appropriately for managing urgent conservation problems.

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Section: Inverse Inferencementioning

confidence: 99%

Pros and cons of using seabirds as ecological indicators

Durant¹,

Hjermann²,

Frederiksen³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

110

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“…As it should be expected, seabirds respond to the variability in climate change and warming (e.g., Schreiber, 2002;Jenouvrier, 2013), and responses occur at both proximal (ecological) and ultimate (evolutionary) levels (Parmesan, 2006;Weimerskirch et al, 2012). The scientific literature has been sensitive to the warning message involving climate warming and papers dealing with seabirds have not been an exception (Votier et al, 2008a). Massive breeding failures following climate perturbations have attracted the attention of researchers, and records on El Niño events and its ecological consequences are a good example (e.g., Glantz, 2001;Velarde et al, 2004;Devney et al, 2009).…”

Section: Climate and Its Influence On Seabirdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seabirds and climate: knowledge, pitfalls, and opportunities

Oró

2014

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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As a physical driver of ecosystem functioning, it is not surprising that climate influences seabird demography and population dynamics, generally by affecting food availability. However, if we zoom in ecologically, seabirds are in fact very heterogeneous, ranging in size from very small to very large species (with a difference of more than two orders of magnitude in body weight), from planktivorous forms to predators of large fish and squid, from benthic to pelagic, from species with small foraging ranges to species feeding throughout the whole circumpolar region, and from resident species (at a spatial mesoscale) to trans-equatorial migrating seabirds that travel large distances across several oceanographic systems. Due to this high variability and the difficulty in obtaining direct reliable estimates of long-term food availability, global climatic indices have been extensively used in studying seabird demography and population dynamics. However, the use made by researchers of these indices has certain conceptual and methodological pitfalls, which I shall address in this review. Other factors, such as anthropogenic impacts (including oil-spills and interaction with fisheries), may further alter or confound the association between climate and seabird demography. These pitfalls and environmental noise, together with the inability to incorporate resilience, may bias our predictions regarding the future impact of global warming on seabirds, many of which have vulnerable populations.Keywords: predictive models, resilience, methodological bias, evolution, global change, climate, seabirds HISTORICAL BACKGROUNDA search performed in June 2014 using the words "climate & seabird" in the ISI Web of Science resulted in 946 items. Even though some of those items dealt with other marine organisms or were focused on some related issues (such as oceanographic processes), that result represents a large number of scientific contributions on the topic of how climate may influence seabird ecology. The influence of climate on marine organisms has been extensively studied in seabirds because, compared to most other species (except some marine mammals such as seals and sealions), their demography and population dynamics can be easily monitored in breeding colonies.Up to the 90s, the changes in demographic parameters and population size in seabirds were explored mostly in relation to intrinsic features of the colonies such as their size or the presence of predators (Hunt et al., 1986). The effects of climate (mostly in the form of oceanographic indices) on seabird ecology were seldom analyzed in those years (Myres, 1979), and research efforts were addressed mostly to determining the distribution of seabirds at sea (Abrams, 1985). The influence of oceanographic features was outlined especially when extreme and anomalous events occurred (such as cyclones or El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years (e.g., Blomqvist and Peterz, 1984;Graybill and Hodder, 1985), whereas some pioneering studies dealt with the relationship between climatic ev...

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“…It has also been suggested that the altered taxonomic status of the species in the early 1990s may have resulted in increased awareness and better recording, leading to the impression of increasing numbers further north (Votier et al 2008a). N evertheless, the fact remains that internationally important numbers (>1% of the global population) of Europe's only Critically Endangered seabird have been consistently recorded off northwest France and the southwest UK and Ireland over the last 15 yr (Wynn & Yésou 2007, Wynn 2009, Darlaston & Wynn 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using integrated land- and boat-based surveys to inform conservation of the Critically Endangered Balearic shearwater

Jones¹,

Wynn²,

Yésou³

et al. 2014

Endang. Species. Res.

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We investigated spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the Critically Endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in the northern part of its migratory range, using a combination of effort-corrected land-and boat-based survey data (2007−2010). The species was recorded regularly along the western English Channel (Western Channel) coasts of northwest France and the southwest UK, with peak counts occurring during the summer and autumn months. Foraging aggregations comprising hundreds to thousands of birds (~1 to 20% of the global population) were recorded in the large shallow embayments of northern Brittany in all survey years. Elsewhere, most birds were recorded on passage, with maximum birds-per-hour (BPH) of 169 off northwest France and 36 off the southwest UK. Few birds were recorded offshore, beyond sight of land. A distance-from-shore analysis revealed that the species passed closer to shore than other pelagic seabirds such as sooty shearwater Puffinus griseus. A constant-effort seasonal survey from the southwest tip of the UK mainland recorded the species on 93% of survey days, with BPH rates peaking in the morning between 08:00 and 11:00 h. These results have important monitoring and conservation implications for this Critically Endangered species. In particular, the records of large aggregations in spatially restricted areas of the Western Channel during the inter-breeding period suggests the species could be vulnerable to impacts such as oil spills, or disturbance from offshore construction projects. We also provide evidence that some birds remain in the survey area during the breeding season, suggesting it may be an important site for non-breeding birds.

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Is climate change the most likely driver of range expansion for a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters?

Cited by 23 publications

References 4 publications

Pros and cons of using seabirds as ecological indicators

Pros and cons of using seabirds as ecological indicators

Seabirds and climate: knowledge, pitfalls, and opportunities

Using integrated land- and boat-based surveys to inform conservation of the Critically Endangered Balearic shearwater

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