Is COVID-19 seasonal? A time series modeling approach

Abstract

Background Determining whether SARS-CoV-2 is or will be seasonal like other respiratory viruses is critical for public health planning, including informing vaccine policy regarding the optimal timing for deploying booster doses. To help answer this urgent public health question, we evaluated whether COVID-19 case rates in the United States and Europe followed a seasonal pattern using time series models. Methods We analyzed COVID-19 data from Our World in Data from Mar 2020 through Apr 2022 for the United States (and Census Region) and five European countries (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom). For each, anomalies were identified using Twitter's decomposition method and Generalized Extreme Studentized Deviate tests. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the impact of data source (i.e., using US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] data instead of OWID) and whether findings were similar after adjusting for multiple covariates. Finally, we determined whether our time series models accurately predicted seasonal influenza trends using US CDC FluView data. Results Anomaly plots detected COVID-19 rates that were higher than expected between November and March each year in the United States and Europe. In the US Southern Census Region, in addition to seasonal peaks in the fall/winter, a second peak in Aug/Sep 2021 was identified as anomalous. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Our results support employing annual protective measures against SARS-CoV-2 such as administration of seasonal booster vaccines or other non-pharmaceutical interventions in a similar timeframe as those already in place for influenza prevention.

Aspects and issues of marketing authorisation and use of medicinal products for COVID-19 prevention during the pandemic

“…Согласно экспертным оценкам текущий эпидемический процесс может принять характер сезонной инфекции, как и в случае сезонных коронавирусов, циркулирующих круглый год, но пик инфекций которых приходится на зимние месяцы [51,52]. Оптимистичные прогнозы также основываются на снижении уровня летальности и степени выраженности симптомов последнего варианта SARS-CoV-2 -«омикрон».…”

Clinical Performance of BD Veritor™ Assay Across SARS-CoV-2 Variants

“…Since the outset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, five VOC and two VOI have been reported in North America, that is, Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, and Omicron as VOC, and Lambda and Mu as VOI. 1 The predicted seasonal pattern of SARS-CoV-2 activity in the endemic environment 2,3 coupled with the known propensity of RNA viruses to mutate 4 will likely result in varying rates of morbidity, mortality, transmission, and immune escape for each variant. Accordingly, concerns are raised over the phenotypic characteristics of each variant and their subsequent detectability with antigen-based immunoassays.…”