Is Credit Rating Reserved Territory for Credit Rating Agencies? A Multimoora Approach for European Firms and Countries

Abstract

Credit Rating Agencies rate firms and countries by internal experts but with a final qualitative judgment by their management acting as decision makers. These ratings on their turn influence the countries credit rating and ipso facto of their enterprises. The work of the CRA is in fact double: credit rating of firms and other organizations at one side and countries on the other. Considering the credit rating of firms, the CRA made significant mistakes during the Recession 2007−2009 and their judgment is too much American oriented, in any way from a European point of view. Consequently, in Europe many efforts were made to come to a new agency, but all efforts failed. It could be different for the rating of countries. Is a more scientific approach, eventually on a quantitative and structural basis, not possible? Therefore, MULTIMOORA, a quantitative method, is suggested. The study was made for all countries of the European Continent. Based on data available in 2013 and on their extrapolation, the results are quite comparable to the results of Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating System of the moment. As the classifications of Moody’s and Fitch are very similar to those of Standard & Poor’s the outcome would be similar for these other Credit Rating Agencies.

Makine Öğrenmesi Teknikleri ile Ülke Riski Tahmini

“…Bazı çalışmalar (Doumpos & Zopounidis, 2002;Stankevičienė & Sviderskė, 2012;Lou & Kou, 2012;Stankevičienė vd., 2014;Svilokos, T., ve Rodić, 2015;Türe vd., 2017;Brauers & Lepkova, 2019) ülke risk analizi ve değerlendirmesinde istatistiksel modellerden daha esnek ve sağlam olan çok kriterli karar verme (MCDA) süreçlerini kullanarak mevcut ülke risk değerlendirme yöntemlerini genişletmişler ve bir dizi yeni yöntem önermişlerdir.…”

“…Literatürde bu amaçla yapılmış birçok ampirik çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmaların bazılarında ilgili ülkeler risk durumlarına göre sıralandırılmakta (Doumpos & Zopounidis, 2002;Yim & Mitchell, 2005;Stankevičienė & Sviderskė, 2012;Lou & Kou, 2012;Stankevičienė vd., 2014;Svilokos & Rodić, 2015;Türe vd., 2017;Brauers & Lepkova, 2019), bazı çalışmalarda sınıflandırılmakta (Frank & Cline, 1971;Abassi & Taffler 1982;Cooper, 1999;Yim & Mitchell, 2005), bazı çalışmalarda ise riskin belirleyicileri belirlenmeye (Feder & Just, 1977;Edwards, 1985;Brewer & Rivoli, 1990;Cosset & Roy, 1991;Oral vd., 1992;Lee, 1993a;Lee, 1993b;Rivoli & Brewer, 1997;Haque vd., 1998;Ramcharran, 1999;Easton & Rockerbie, 1999;Cooper, 1999;Oetzel vd., 2001;Yim & Mitchell, 2005;Vij, 2005) çalışılmaktadır.…”

Determinants of sovereign debt ratings in clusters of European countries – effects of the crisis

“…The rating market is an oligopoly (Eijffinger, 2012) that is a system of imperfect competition in which a small number of companies, namely, three agencies, control the market. The three agencies with this strong position are Moody's, S&P's and Fitch (Brauers and Lepkova, 2019).…”