Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

Abstract

Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)–based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main Measures We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t 1/2β ) for each identified period. Key Results In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t 1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t 1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17–2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15–2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t 1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days < t 1/2β < 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.

Lockdowns and Mobility Rate Variation in the COVID-19 Era

“…Indeed, although the effectiveness of lockdowns in containing the spread of COVID-19 is still controversial (Dainton & Hay, 2021), this chapter follows the empirical findings of Mégarbane et al (2021) and Alfano and Ercolano (2020), which positively correlate restrictive social mobility policies with rule compliance and public safety.…”

The impact of public transportation on the transmission of COVID-19 in Rwanda

“…This finding underscores the influence of curfews on transportation patterns and highlights their effectiveness in controlling mobility. Some studies have found that imposing curfew was effective in altering the spread of COVID-19 epidemic ( 33 – 35 ). This study also reveals the significant impact of public transportation on the movement of people within the country.…”