Is Evolution a Chance Process?

Abstract

It is commonly thought that evolution is a chance process, an idea found in popular writings on evolution, but also in academic writing in a broad range of scientific disciplines: scientific, philosophical and theological. One problem is that words such as ‘chance’ and ‘random’ are used with a range of different meanings according to context, and in evolutionary biology the word ‘chance’ is sometimes used in a way that is different from its use in mathematics and philosophy. The present article aims to clarify the range of meanings and to argue the case that the evolutionary process is far from being a ‘theory of chance’ from biological, mathematical, or indeed philosophical and theological perspectives.

Evolution, Chance, Necessity, and Design

“…The various meanings of “chance” and “random” are even more extensive than the word “design.” For example, the word “chance” is used more than one hundred times in The Compatibility of Evolution and Design with at least four different meanings or nuances, depending on which author is being cited. After an initial categorization, we will then discuss which of these meanings may, or may not, be relevant to the evolutionary process, drawing on previously published work (Alexander 2017, 2020).…”

“…This is why I started with the "necessarily purposeless" argument of Dawkins, quoted above, by choosing to draw the reader's attention in Is There Purpose in Biology? (Alexander 2017) to those many facets of evolution that do not look as if they are necessarily without purpose. Once again, such a ground-clearing exercise is still some way from Kojonen's aim of mounting more positive arguments about design built on the process of evolution itself, but at least can be seen as a step along the way.…”