Is Export a Probe for Domestic Production?

Saltarelli, Francesco; Cimini, Valeria; Tacchella, Andrea; Zaccaria, Andrea; Cristelli, Matthieu

doi:10.3389/fphy.2020.00180

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Against this backdrop, greater structural change in production would be associated with greater economic complexity. This is more likely insofar as goods exports strongly reflect domestic production for manufacturing sectors or sectors related to physical goods (Saltarelli et al 2020).…”

Section: A Effect Of Productive Capacities On Economic Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Gnangnon

2021

Journal of Economic Integration

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This is the first study to examine the effect of productive capacities on economic complexity and understand whether the Aid for Trade (AfT) flows is important for this effect in recipient countries. The analysis uses a sample of 126 developed and developing countries for 2002-2018 and adopts the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments approach. Results show that strengthening productive capacities enhances economic complexity. Furthermore, productive capacities and total AfT flows are strongly complementary in positively affecting economic complexity, and the degree of complementarity is higher for poor countries than for other AfT-recipient countries. Similarly, productive capacities are strongly complementary with total Non-AfT flows, as well as for total development aid. These findings highlight the need for scaling-up development aid flows, notably AfT flows, in favor of developing countries and poor countries having the lowest levels of productive capacities.

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Section: A Effect Of Productive Capacities On Economic Complexitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Gnangnon

2021

Journal of Economic Integration

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“…While it is impossible to observe these capabilities directly, it is possible to infer the amount of complementary capabilities layered in countries and products through a bipartite network linking countries to the products they are able to export. Saltarelli et al (2020) find that countries' export patterns mirror their domestic production structures in manufacturing and sectors producing physical goods. This indicates that countries' exports serve as reasonable approximations not only of their export capabilities but also of their productive capabilities (economic complexity) in general.…”

Section: Measuring the Complexity Of Countries And Productsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Economic complexity and structural transformation: the case of Mozambique

Sørensen¹,

Estmann²,

Sarmento³

et al. 2020

WIDER Working Paper

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Mozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use network methods from the literature on economic complexity to identify a set of target products that are complex, require productive capabilities useful in the export of other products, and are close to Mozambique’s existing productive structure. In a demand-side analysis, we use gravity models to predict the export potential of target products and markets given product-specific trade resistance and geographically dispersed demand. The broad sectoral focus of Mozambique’s industrial policy is largely consistent with structural transformation and export promotion. The current prioritization of agriculture, agro-industry, and metals is especially important, while there are unexploited opportunities in machinery, vehicles, and transport equipment. We find some potential for Mozambique to export target products to neighbouring countries.

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“…We hypothesize that greater structural changes to production are likely to result in greater export resilience. This is because, on the one hand, Saltarelli et al (2020) have empirically demonstrated that exports of goods reflect strongly on domestic production in terms of manufacturing sectors or sectors related to physical goods; however, the link between the export of services and the production of services is less tenous. This means that greater structural changes to production are likely to be strongly associated with greater export diversification, at least for goods exports.…”

Section: Theoretical Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development Aid and Export Resilience in Developing Countries: A Reference to Aid for Trade

Gnangnon

2022

Economies

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The COVID-19 pandemic, as with previous major crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, has had a severe negative impact on international trade flows. The present paper aims to contribute to the debate concerning how to foster resilience against future crises, in terms of countries’ aggregate exports, by examining the effect of development aid (i.e., so-called official development assistance), particularly the impact of the Aid for Trade (AfT) component, upon export resilience. The resilience of exports refers to the ability of countries’ aggregate exports to resist shocks, regardless of whether they are environmental or external shocks. The core argument of the analysis is that development aid would affect export resilience through its impact upon productive capacities. The analysis covers 93 developing countries over the period 2002–2018. The findings indicate that the total development aid flows, including both AfT flows and NonAfT flows, exert a positive effect upon export resilience. Among AfT components, AfT for productive capacities appears to exert a greater positive effect upon export resilience than AfT for economic infrastructure and AfT for trade policy and regulation. In addition, development aid (regardless of which aid variable is considered) exerts the greatest positive effect upon export resilience in countries (such as the least developed countries—LDCs) that have the lowest productive capacities. These findings highlight the need for donor countries to supply higher development aid flows, in particular, AfT flows, to countries such as LDCs that have low productive capacities.

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Is Export a Probe for Domestic Production?

Cited by 17 publications

References 45 publications

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

Economic complexity and structural transformation: the case of Mozambique

Development Aid and Export Resilience in Developing Countries: A Reference to Aid for Trade

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