Is gastric cancer becoming a rare disease? A global assessment of predicted incidence trends to 2035

Abstract

ObjectivesThe incidence of gastric cancer continues to decrease globally, approaching levels that in some populations could define it as a rare disease. To explore this on a wider scale, we predict its future burden in 34 countries with long-standing population-based data.MethodsData on gastric cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex and age were extracted for 92 cancer registries in 34 countries included in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. Numbers of new cases and age-standardised incidence rates (ASR per 100 000) were predicted up to 2035 by fitting and extrapolating age–period–cohort models.ResultsOverall gastric cancer incidence rates are predicted to continue falling in the future in the majority of countries, including high-incidence countries such as Japan (ASR 36 in 2010 vs ASR 30 in 2035) but also low-incidence countries such as Australia (ASR 5.1 in 2010 vs ASR 4.6 in 2035). A total of 16 countries are predicted to fall below the rare disease threshold (defined as 6 per 100 000 person-years) by 2035, while the number of newly diagnosed cases remains high and is predicted to continue growing. In contrast, incidence increases were seen in younger age groups (below age 50 years) in both low-incidence and high-incidence populations.ConclusionsWhile gastric cancer is predicted to become a rare disease in a growing number of countries, incidence levels remain high in some regions, and increasing risks have been observed in younger generations. The predicted growing number of new cases highlights that gastric cancer remains a major challenge to public health on a global scale.

Predictors for development of complete and incomplete intestinal metaplasia (IM) associated with H. pylori infection: A large-scale study from low prevalence area of gastric cancer (IM-HP trial)

“…Thailand, despite being located in Asia, had low age-standardized gastric cancer incidence rate like the USA. Moreover, the trend over the forthcoming decades of these two countries is also predicted to be approximately the same [23]. The population in this study included only Thai people.…”

Review: Prevention and management of gastric cancer

“…In a registry‐based study, Arnold et al extracted data on GC incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, and age from 92 cancer registries in 34 countries, based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision: C16 1 . The numbers of new cases and age‐standardized incidence rates per 10,000 by country, sex, and age, beginning in 2012, were extrapolated to 2035 and fitted to recent trends using a log‐linear age‐period‐cohort model that levels off exponential growth and limits linear trend projection.…”

Helicobacter pylorieradication therapy to prevent gastric cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

“…Despite a declining incidence in the developing world, [1] gastric cancer is the third commonest cause of cancer death worldwide. [2] In 2017 there were over 850,000 deaths attributable to gastric cancer, and it is estimated that one in 33 men, and one in 78 women will develop the disease during their lifetime.…”