Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk

Abstract

Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal riskCoastal risk is already high in several parts of the world and is expected to be amplified by climate change, which makes it necessary to outline effective risk management strategies. Risk managers assume that increasing awareness of coastal risk is the key to public support and endorsement of risk management strategies -an assumption that underlies a common worldview on the public understanding of science, which has been named the deficit model. We argue that the effects of awareness are not as straightforward. In particular, awareness of coastal hazards might not lead to more technically-accurate risk perceptions.Based on research on risk perception normalization, we explored the hypothesis that coastal risk awareness reduces coastal risk perception -in particular the perceived likelihood of occurrence of coastal hazards-through its effect on reliance on protective measures to prevent risk. Individuals can rely on protective measures, even when those are not effective, as a positive illusion to reduce risk perception. This effect might be stronger for higher-probability hazards and for permanent residents of costal zones. Data from 410 individuals living in coastal zones corroborated most of our expectations. Global results demonstrated a risk normalization effect mediated by reliance on current measures. Additional analyses made clear that this effect occurred in 2 of the 5 high-probability hazards (flood and storm), and not in the low-probability hazard (tsunami).Normalization might be more likely among high-probability hazards which entail catastrophic and immediate impacts. This effect was also found among permanent residents, but not among temporary residents. Results imply that coastal risk management might benefit from a) taking risk perception normalization effects into account, b) tailoring strategies for permanent and temporary residents, and c) promoting a higher public engagement, which would facilitate a more adaptive and effective coping with coastal risk than the use of positive illusions.

Why People Live in Flood-Prone Areas in Akuressa, Sri Lanka

“…It can be explained as a coping strategy that individuals use to have a sense of control over something that is in fact uncontrollable, and often results in a false sense of security (Johnson and Levin 2009;Luìs et al 2016). This can contribute to increased vulnerability by compromising preparedness efforts.…”

“…For example, Renn (1998), Slovic (2001), and Coppola (2011) emphasize the importance of risk awareness and risk perception. Risk awareness can be described as the knowledge and consciousness of the risks associated with a hazard (Raaijmakers et al 2008;Luìs et al 2016). A lack of awareness regarding a risk is likely to result in a lack of preparedness (Scolobig et al 2012).…”

Analysing flash flood risk perception through a geostatistical approach in the village of Navaluenga, Central Spain

“…This is not what would be expected to happen, the less distance to the hazardous source, the more preparedness intention. Literature on psychological processes in risk perception offers some clues to understand these results, particularly on the risk normalisation effect (Luís et al, ). Several studies have shown that psychological proximity does not always lead to more action: some variables such as target behaviour, perceived efficacy or concern, among others, can mediate reducing the effect of psychological distance bias (McDonald, Chai, & Newell, ; Spence et al, ).…”

“…Besides the classical heuristic processes in taking decisions or making judgements (Tversky & Kahneman, ), mentioned above in point (b), other cognitive bias have recently been adopted to understand RP processes. The study by Luís et al () concludes that normalising perception reduces coastal RP through the illusion of positive control. An example of this conclusion can be found in people living in coastal areas prone to be flooded, who tend to experience a sense of control and an unrealistic optimism about flood hazard.…”

A comparative frame for a contextualised analysis of local natural risk management

“…Such rationalizations of risk exposure have been widely described in risk analytic research (e.g. Luís et al, 2016;Joffe, 2003) as part of individual or collective processes. Breakwell (2001) proposes that these rationalisations become part of social representations and that these representations also contain information about which groups can be trusted or not (Breakwell, 2020), as part of identity defensive strategies.…”