Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing?

Rosero-Bixby, Luis; Castro-Martín, Teresa; Martín-García, Teresa

doi:10.4054/demres.2009.20.9

Cited by 75 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…However, the recent economic recession has brought a renewed postponement of births, leading to additional downward pressure on period fertility (see Section 2.4 and Box 3). In contrast, developing and middle-income countries with low fertility typically report earlier ages at childbearing with most only beginning to experience a shift towards later parenthood, which may depress their period TFRs for decades to come (Bongaarts 1999, Rosero-Bixby et al 2009). Exceptions, such as Iran, do exist where low TFR and early childbearing co-exist.…”

Section: Fertility Postponement and Its Impact On Period Fertilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Fertility Postponement and Its Impact On Period Fertilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…An increasing number of countries in both Central and South America are characterized by below replacement total fertility rates (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) matching those of more developed countries (De Broe and Hinde 2006;PRB 2007;Rosero-Bixby, Martin, and Martin-Garcia 2008). However, a closer look at country and regional family planning behavior in Latin America reveals exceptional subgroups with unusually high TFR and correspondingly low CPR.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Urban living facilitates women's participation in the labor force and increases educational opportunities (Heaton, Forste, and Otterstrom 2002). Both factors associated with smaller family size goals and increased contraceptive use (Becker 1981;Heaton, Forste, and Otterstrom 2002;Rosero-Bixby, Martin, and Martin-Garcia 2008).…”

Section: Modeling Contraceptive Use and Intentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contraceptive use and intent in Guatemala

Grace¹

2010

DemRes

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Guatemala is characterized by low contraceptive use rates and one of the highest fertility rates in the Western Hemisphere. These rates are particularly extreme for the poorest segment of the population and for the indigenous population. However, notable increases in contraceptive use have occurred within the past ten years, indicating that Guatemala may be on the precipice of significant demographic change. The purpose of this research is to enhance understanding of the modern contraceptive revolution in Guatemala through identification of the segments of the Guatemalan population at most need for contraceptive and family planning services. Using the most recently available survey data, the 2002 Reproductive Health Survey data set (RHS), classification trees are used to determine the women with greatest need for reproductive health services. The results highlight the persistent marginalization of the poor and the indigenous and provide further insight into the impact of education, place of residence and couple characteristics on contraceptive use and intent.1 University of California at Santa Barbara. E-mail: grace@geog.ucsb.edu. This work was conducted, in part, while the author was a postdoctoral researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock.http://www.demographic-research.org 335Grace: Contraceptive use and intent in Guatemala IntroductionMuch of Latin America has recently experienced a rapid decline in fertility accelerated by an increase in contraceptive use (PRB 2007). An increasing number of countries in both Central and South America are characterized by below replacement total fertility rates (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) matching those of more developed countries (De Broe and Hinde 2006;PRB 2007;Rosero-Bixby, Martin, and Martin-Garcia 2008). However, a closer look at country and regional family planning behavior in Latin America reveals exceptional subgroups with unusually high TFR and correspondingly low CPR. Once a leader in family planning, and despite recent strides in contraceptive expansion and fertility decline, Guatemala has the highest TFR in Latin America and one of the lowest CPRs in the Western Hemisphere (Santiso-Galvez and Bertrand 2004;De Broe and Hinde 2006;PRB 2007). In a context where maternal and infant mortality rates are high, poverty is rampant, and malnutrition is common, empowering women with the knowledge and resources to plan their own families is vital. However, Guatemala's low CPR and high TFR suggest that the ability of women to freely determine the timing and number of births may be limited.The goal of this research is to identify the Guatemalan women with the greatest need for contraceptive services using the most recently 3 collected data. The results of the analysis aim to provide information helpful to monitoring Guatemala's evolving contraceptive needs and documenting the fertility transition in a contemporary less developed country. Differing from related research, this study incorporates flexible modeling techniqu...

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“…El descenso de la fecundidad en América Latina se ha dado, por otra parte, a una velocidad superior a la de los países pioneros de la transición demográfica, donde en pocos años pudo observarse un aumento sustantivo de las mujeres de 30 años que no son madres, sobre todo entre las más educadas (ROSERO-BIXBY et al, 2009). Los dos posibles mecanismos demográficos para esto (mayor prevalencia de las mujeres sin hijos en las cohortes actuales o aplazamiento del momento de tenerlos) se combinan con diferente peso en cada país, pero conforman un escenario particular del cambio en el comportamiento reproductivo latinoamericano.…”

Section: La Especificidad Latinoamericana Y El Aprovechamiento De La unclassified

“…Por un lado, existe una creciente acumulación de investigación demográfica latinoamericana, que permite conjeturar acerca de las posibles características del cambio en el comportamiento reproductivo de la región (ROSERO-BIXBY et al, 2009). Por otro, las matrices de protección social de los estados latinoamericanos se han modificado, incorporando crecientemente medidas de política familiar que atienden estos temas.…”

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La fecundidad bajo el reemplazo y las políticas familiares en América Latina y el Caribe: qué puede aprenderse de la experiencia europea

Pardo¹,

Varela²

2013

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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El descenso de la fecundidad en América Latina y el Caribe es un fenómeno inédito y extremadamente veloz. Hoy, numerosos países de la región tienen fecundidad bajo el nivel de reemplazo, incluyendo casos emblemáticos como el de Brasil. Aquí se debate desde qué marco conceptual se pueden comprender las diferentes medidas, programas o políticas que están surgiendo y surgirán en el futuro en relación a temas de fecundidad y familia. Además, se resumen e interpretan las experiencias de aquellos países en los que se han implementado políticas familiares en contexto de fecundidad bajo el reemplazo (concretamente, las políticas implementadas en Suecia, España y Francia) discutiendo de qué manera las experiencias europeas pueden resultar útiles para la formulación de políticas en América Latina. Para concluir, se enumeran las decisiones clave a tomar para el diseño de políticas familiares en contexto de baja fecundidad.Palabras clave: Fecundidad. Políticas familiares. Fecundidad bajo el reemplazo. América Latina y el Caribe.

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Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing?

Cited by 75 publications

References 22 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Contraceptive use and intent in Guatemala

La fecundidad bajo el reemplazo y las políticas familiares en América Latina y el Caribe: qué puede aprenderse de la experiencia europea

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