Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?

Eichengreen, Barry; Steiner, Katharina

doi:10.3386/w14438

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…While a complete literature review is clearly beyond the scope of this paper, the early strand of the literature focused on the role of privatization and foreign bank entry on banking system performance (Claessens andothers, 2001, Bonin andothers, 2005;Haas and Lelyveld, 2006;Havrylchyk and Jurzyk, 2010) or credit allocation (Aydin, 2008;Degryse and others, 2009), pointing to the generally positive role of foreign bank presence. A different strand of literature analyzed to what extent fast credit growth was (initially) seen as financial deepening that is helpful for economic growth in catch-up economies, or whether it (later onward) represented excessive growth prescient of a credit boom-bust (Cotttarelli and others, 2003;Hilbers and others, 2005;Duenwald and others, 2005;Égert and others, 2006;Enoch and Ötker-Robe, 2007;Eichengreen and Steiner, 2008;Tressel and Detragiache, 2008). The role of international capital flows and parent funding has also featured prominently, for instance in Bakker and Gulde (2010), Lane and McQuade (2012), Mendoza and Terrones (2012), or IMF (2013a).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Our focus in this study is on domestic credit. We thus abstract from cross-border lending to non-banks, even though we acknowledge that this channel of credit provision is significant in most CESEE countries (see chapter 4 of IMF (2011) for a discussion).4 See for instanceEichengreen and Steiner (2008) for a discussion on how the boom in Poland differed from other countries in Europe.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Everaert

Natasha²,

Geng³

et al. 2015

IMF Working Papers

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Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boombust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for the entire CESEE region. We complement this analysis by five case studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply factors, on average and relative to demand factors, gained in importance in explaining credit growth in the post-crisis period. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the fact that country experiences were heterogeneous.

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confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Everaert

Natasha²,

Geng³

et al. 2015

IMF Working Papers

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“…The impact of euro adoption on the housing market is an interesting question by itself. Generally, they are low interest rates (required by Maastricht criteria), which influence the credit boom (Eichengreen, Steiner, 2008). On the other hand, interest rates are still quite low.…”

Section: Impact On Housing Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concentration of Banking Sector and Loan Markups in Short Term: An Example from Poland

Drachal¹

2014

FAI

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The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of the relationship between concentration of the banking sector and banks' markups on offered loans. The markup is understood as the difference between the rate offered by banks and the reference rate fixed by the Monetary Policy Council. The period between 2009 and 2013 was analyzed. Monthly data from the Polish banking sector were considered. This paper also consists of the literature review, which focuses on the mortgage market. The methodology used for the analysis is based mainly on simple linear regression techniques. It is found that such methods are not sufficient to give conclusive answers. Therefore additional future research is proposed.

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“…Wyniki badań potwierdzają te obserwacje (np. [Eichengreen, Steiner, 2008]). Trzecim instrumentem łagodzenia skutków szoku asymetrycznego jest możliwość wykorzystania polityki fiskalnej do pobudzania gospodarki.…”

Section: Ta B L I C Aunclassified

Should Poland Join the Eurozone?

Rosati

2013

Gospodarka Narodowa

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Czy Polska powinna przystąpić do strefy euro? Streszczenie: Przedmiotem artykułu jest kwestia wejścia Polski do strefy euro. W szczególności, autor stara się odpowiedzieć na trzy pytania: po pierwsze, czy Polska ma prawnomiędzynarodowy obowiązek wejścia do strefy euro, po drugie, czy przyjęcie wspólnej waluty jest dla Polski korzystne, i po trzecie, jeśli tak, kiedy i na jakich warunkach powinniśmy wprowadzić wspólną walutę. Odpowiadając na pierwsze pytanie autor wskazuje, że Traktaty Europejskie nakładają na państwa członkowskie obowiązek uczestnictwa w unii walutowej, i podkreśla, że ponieważ w trakcie negocjacji akcesyjnych Polska nie ubiegała się o uchylenie tego obowiązku, znalazł się on w Traktacie Akcesyjnym przyjętym przez Polskę w drodze referendum. Odpowiadając na drugie pytanie, autor dowodzi, że Polska spełnia kryteria optymalnego obszaru walutowego w stopniu nie mniejszym niż wiele innych państw członkowskich strefy euro, a następnie podejmuje próbę oszacowania wielkości niektórych korzyści i kosztów związanych z akcesją. Przeprowadzona analiza pokazuje, że wejście do strefy euro jest dla Polski korzystne, a skala korzyści netto może wynosić w dłuższym okresie ok. 1,5-2,0% PKB w skali roku. Odpowiadając na trzecie pytanie, autor wskazuje, że wejście do strefy euro wymaga uprzedniego spełnienia szeregu warunków, obejmujących-oprócz kryteriów konwergencji nominalnej wymaganych Traktatem-także zmianę Konstytucji, stworzenie zabezpieczeń przed nowymi rodzajami zagrożeń jakie akcesja może nieść dla stabilności makroekonomicznej, oraz uzyskanie większego poparcia społecznego dla akcesji.

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Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Concentration of Banking Sector and Loan Markups in Short Term: An Example from Poland

Should Poland Join the Eurozone?

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