Is Sensible Heat Flux Useful for the Assessment of Thermal Vulnerability in Seoul (Korea)?

Abstract

Climate change has led to increases in global temperatures, raising concerns regarding the threat of lethal heat waves and deterioration of the thermal environment. In the present study, we adopted two methods for spatial modelling of the thermal environment based on sensible heat and temperature. A vulnerability map reflecting daytime temperature was derived to plot thermal vulnerability based on sensible heat and climate change exposure factors. The correlation (0.73) between spatial distribution of sensible heat vulnerability and mortality rate was significantly greater than that (0.30) between the spatial distribution of temperature vulnerability and mortality rate. These findings indicate that deriving thermally vulnerable areas based on sensible heat are more objective than thermally vulnerable areas based on existing temperatures. Our findings support the notion that the distribution of sensible heat vulnerability at the community level is useful for evaluating the thermal environment in specific neighbourhoods. Thus, our results may aid in establishing spatial planning standards to improve environmental sustainability in a metropolitan community.

Understanding Urban Heat Vulnerability Assessment Methods: A PRISMA Review

“…Specifically, LST was referred to as an exposure element in the population vulnerability framework [54,80,87], while the risk triangle framework considered it as a representative of hazard element [11,81,88]. Kwon et al [101] classified population density as a proxy for the sensitivity element while using the population vulnerability framework, but Dong et al [82] interpreted it as the representative of the exposure element in the risk triangle framework.…”

“…Moreover, the difference in correlations at the different scales indicates the limited applicability of the developed methods. The overall validation performances reveal that HVI values alone may not suffice when measuring urban heat vulnerability [27,101]. Urban planners and policymakers should integrate multiple measuring and assessing approaches in the planning, conception, and design process of mitigation and intervention strategies.…”

“…Apart from statistical regression models, Pearson correlation and Spearman's rankorder correlation were often calculated to reflect whether there was a significant correlation between heat vulnerability outcomes and heat-related health outcomes [49,63,68]. Critical success index (CSI), statistical significance test, case-crossover and threshold or curve analyses, and root mean square error [71,101,104,109] were also employed in the validation of the HVI models.…”

“…These researchers argued mortality can directly depict the impacts of heat exposure on humans and the association between population health and extreme heat with less bias. Mortality indicators can be classified into two categories-i.e., heat-related mortality [101] and all-cause mortality [102] during summer or heat events.…”

“…On the one hand, some studies used deaths caused by diseases sensitive to the extreme thermal environment as the mortality indicator. Kwon et al [101] selected mortality data related to respiratory, ischemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease as thermal disease-related mortality. Hu et al [49] and Liu et al [94] also considered deaths caused by heat stroke, dehydration, and hyperpyrexia as heat-related mortality.…”