Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

Qu, Jiangwen

doi:10.1002/rmv.1887

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The result of linear correlation analysis indicated that the coefficient of correlation between relative sunspot number and cosmic ray data was −0.90 (P=0.000) [9]. Potential influenza pandemics and severe Ebola outbreaks being confined to particular years, we infer that some special or unusual factors must have emerged and played decisive roles.…”

Section: Possible Mechanisms Associated With Sunspots Affecting Influmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…We now summarise influenza data that have already been discussed at length by Qu [9] elsewhere, and we refer the reader to this work for further details and citations. In the past half century, sporadic cases of severe influenza and deaths in humans have been caused by a number of animal influenza A viruses, including the Hsw1N1virus, first detected in 1976, the H5N1 virus, first detected in 1997, and the H7N9 virus, first reported in 2013.…”

Section: Association Between Influenza and Sunspot Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Qu [9] has studied the sunspot-influenza correlation more carefully and concluded that not only peaks in the sunspot cycle, but minima are also sometimes relevant. It is concluded that the onset of pandemics and possible pandemics coincide with sunspot extrema [maxima and minima] to within ± 1 year.…”

Section: Sunspot Connectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Geographical and species localization are, however, no barrier to changes to the viral genome that can suddenly be wrought due to hybridization/recombination events with globally prevalent or space-incident viral genes. Recombination could occur with other related and compatible viruses or virions that could be a global phenomenon driven, as in the case of influenza [9], by the sunspot cycle.…”

Section: Association Between Severe Ebola Outbreaks and Sunspot Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sunspot Activity, Influenza and Ebola Outbreak Connection

Qu¹,

Gao²

2016

Astrobiol Outreach

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An ever-present threat of a major new influenza pandemic of devastating proportions haunts us, and despite diligent monitoring of circulating viruses has been impossible to predict. On a more local scale outbreaks of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (EHF) in West Africa have posed a serious public health threat because of its high fatality risk. Research on the environmental factors underlying both EHF and influenza epidemiology may provide useful insights into the occurrence of future pandemic outbreaks. This study suggests that sunspot activity in extremum or ± one year was associated with influenza pandemics and severe EHF outbreaks in Africa from 1976 to 2014. Potential mechanisms by which sunspot activity may influence viral outbreaks are discussed. Current and future surveillance efforts should be supported to construct a comprehensive early warning system involving virus monitoring and epidemioilogy on the ground, sunspot activity as well as stratospheric sampling for forecasting future pandemics.

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Section: Possible Mechanisms Associated With Sunspots Affecting Influmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Association Between Influenza and Sunspot Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sunspot Connectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Association Between Severe Ebola Outbreaks and Sunspot Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sunspot Activity, Influenza and Ebola Outbreak Connection

Qu¹,

Gao²

2016

Astrobiol Outreach

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“…Hoyle and Wickramasinghe [2][3][4] re-examined this proposal using a more extended dataset and concluded that although the coincidences were not precise, the two sets of data-influenza and sunspot-were phase-locked such that a causal link was likely. This work was recently extended by Qu [5] who found a more generalised result, namely that both certain and possible pandemics fall within ±2 years of sunspot extrema (maxima and minima).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Sunspot Cycle Minima and Pandemics: The Case for Vigilance?

Wickramasinghe¹,

Steele²,

Wainwright³

et al. 2017

Astrobiol Outreach

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Direct records of sunspots and the solar cycle have been maintained in astronomical observatories for about 1610 AD, while indirect records derived from 14 C analysis of ice cores go back to about 900 AD. Minima in the sunspot cycle present conditions conducive to the entry or activation of new pathogens and also for mutations of already circulating bacteria and viruses. Three grand minima of solar activity on record-the Sporer minimum (1450-1550 AD), Maunder minimum (1650-1700 AD) and the Dalton minimum (1800-1830) have all been marked by a preponderance of pandemics-Small Pox, English Sweats, Plague and Cholera. The sunspot numbers recorded for the present period 2002-2017 include the deepest sunspot minimum (Cycle 23-24) since records began, and a trend to declining numbers throughout the cycle. The same period has seen the resurgence of several pandemics-SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, Influenza A. We consider it prudent to take note of these facts whilst planning future strategies for pandemic surveillance and control.

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