Is the global sea surface temperature rise accelerating?

İ̇z, H. Bâki

doi:10.1016/j.geog.2018.04.002

Cited by 24 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…This discrepancy may be attributed to an anomaly experienced by GMSL that may be due to the thermosteric e ect (Iz, 2016a, 2016b), which is expected to impact the other budget components. It was shown that sea surface temperature exhibits lagged periodic variations (Iz, 2018). The largest anomalies observed in GMSL yearly series are partly because the destination of all the contributing global budget components is the GMSL itself.…”

Section: Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Year by year closure adjustment of global mean sea level budget, inclusive of lumped snow, water vapor, and permafrost mass components

İ̇z

Shum

2020

Journal of Geodetic Science

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Global mean sea level budget is rigorously adjusted during the period 2005–2015 with an emphasis on closing the budget on a year by year basis as opposed to using linear trends of global mean sea level components. The adjustment also accounts for the effect of snow, water vapor, and permafrost mass components as a lump sum. The approach provides better resolution for evaluating individual contribution of each budget component year by year in tandem with the other components. Year by year budget misclosures and the confidence intervals of the year by year adjusted budget components are suggestive of an increasing non-linearity in satellite altimetry derived global mean sea level measurements starting in 2012, which are not present in the other components. The solution also generates time series iteratively for the lumped snow, water vapor, and permafrost mass components as well as an estimate for its linear trend, 0.06±0.59 mm/yr. Nonetheless, its standard error is markedly large because of the un-modeled variability in satellite altimetry observed yearly averaged global mean sea level anomalies.

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Section: Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Year by year closure adjustment of global mean sea level budget, inclusive of lumped snow, water vapor, and permafrost mass components

İ̇z

Shum

2020

Journal of Geodetic Science

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“…Global environmental change is having measurable effects on the epipelagic realm in marine systems. Documented impacts include increases in sea surface temperature (SST), changes in water mass circulation and mixed layer depths, altered primary productivity, or ocean acidification 1 – 3 . Importantly, the effects of climate change are also driving an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) 4 , 5 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery

Moltó

Palmer

Ospina-Álvarez

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Increasing sea temperature is a driver of change for many fish traits, particularly for fast-growing epipelagic species with short life spans. With warming, altered spawning phenology and faster growth may produce substantially larger body sizes of the new cohort, affecting fishery productivity. We present an individual-based model (IBM) that predicts the distribution of fish length at catch under observed and projected thermal scenarios, accounting for mortality, temperature-dependent spawning phenology, temperature- and photoperiod- dependent growth. This IBM was demonstrated with Coryphaena hippurus (common dolphinfish), a circumglobally-distributed and highly thermophilic species sustaining commercial and recreational fisheries where it is present. The model projected a 13.2% increase in the average length at catch under marine heatwave conditions compared to the current thermal regime (1995–2005 average). Projections under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 by the end of the century led to 5.1% and 12.8% increase in average length, respectively. Furthermore, these thermal scenarios affected spawning phenology differently, producing higher variance in body size under RCP 8.5 scenario with respect to marine heatwave conditions. This study highlights how the environmental effects of climate change can alter the distribution of species length at catch.

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“…Not only has the trend in sea surface temperature (SST) been towards warmer oceans over the last few decades (e.g. Roemmich et al, 2012), and even may be accelerating (Bâki Iz, 2018), but it has also been suggested that marine heat waves (MHWs) have become stronger and or more frequent over the last century . MHW are sometimes considered as good analogues for possible future oceans (Salinger et al, 2019), and are often associated with detrimental impact on ocean primary production, for example, extreme MHW have been associated with a loss of kelp forests in Western Australia (Wernberg et al, 2016), a massive mortality of sea birds in the NE Pacific (Jones et al, 2018), and a collapse of the salmon fishing industry around New Zealand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Hemisphere Atmosphere Wavenumber 4 driven Marine Heat Waves and Marine Cool Spells

Chiswell

2021

Preprint

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When SST anomalies are defined with respect to a changing baseline and normalised by their 90th percentile, the Tasman Sea is one of the southern hemisphere hotspots of marine heat waves (MHW) and marine cool spells (MCS). There is little evidence that MHW or MCS are increasing in either frequency or intensity, although the duration of MHW has increased from 8 d four decades ago to 26 d now. On average, Tasman Sea MHW/MCS co-occur with MHW/MCS in the Atlantic, Indian, and eastern-Pacific Oceans, in a wavenumber 4 (W4) pattern. Canonical MHW and MCS show they are likely driven by a stalling of the eastward propagation of a W4 atmospheric wave. During MHW, this slow down leads to near-stationary anomalously high and low air pressure areas driving anomalous north-easterly winds over the Tasman Sea. During MCS, similar a slow-down occurs, but shifted by one-half wavelength zonally.

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Is the global sea surface temperature rise accelerating?

Cited by 24 publications

References 7 publications

Year by year closure adjustment of global mean sea level budget, inclusive of lumped snow, water vapor, and permafrost mass components

Year by year closure adjustment of global mean sea level budget, inclusive of lumped snow, water vapor, and permafrost mass components

Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery

Southern Hemisphere Atmosphere Wavenumber 4 driven Marine Heat Waves and Marine Cool Spells

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