Is The Increase in Oil Prices Effective on Economic Growth? An Empirical Forecast on Turkey Economy

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between oil prices and economic growth in the In this study, the relationship between oil prices and economic growth for the Turkish economy is investigated using monthly data for the period 1988:07-2019:08. For this purpose, the stationarity of the variables is investigated with Fourier Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (FKPSS) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests. The existence of a long-term relationship between the variables is revealed by Fourier SHIN and SHIN cointegration tests. It has been found that there is a long-term relationship between oil prices and economic growth. The long-and short-run cointegration coefficients were estimated by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares Method (DOLS). The findings show that the increase in energy prices increases economic growth.

The Validity of the Financial Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: The Short and Long Term Time Series Findings on the Turkish Economy

“…FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR testlerine de başvurulmasının sebebi bu yöntemlerin ARDL ile elde edilen sonuçların tutarlı ve güvenilir olup olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır (Erdoğan vd. 2018;Özbek ve Naimoğlu, 2021) ARDL testi için oluşturulan kısıtsız hata düzeltme modeli;…”