Researchers discuss the effect of macroeconomics on the stock market but usually, effects on portfolios like the mutual funds are not very popular. In this research, an attempt was made to study the same. A longitudinal, exploratory study was performed taking three year daily (net asset value) NAVs of 41 mutual funds belonging to two categories (gold funds and energy funds) and series of 9 macroeconomic variables and analysed using time series methods to judge and highlight their impact on the chosen funds. Different macroeconomic variables were found to affect the two categories of funds differently. Investment in energy funds increased whenever there was an increase in money supply. Interest rates had a positive impact on gold mutual fund net asset values. Own fund information was found to have the major impact when excited with one standard deviation shock. The causality between various mutual funds and macroeconomic variables was established. The study highlighted the need to understand the global scenario by both the investor and the mutual fund manager. Since the macroeconomic variables interplay and affect the mutual funds, their understanding would help in stitching more profitable schemes. Theoretical Economics Letters vestments abroad are less. The investments of FIIs and FDIs are also less as compared to the massive investments by Indian investors. Indian Rupee has been depreciating for quite some time now, but the efforts are on to stabilize this fall. Currency appreciation, depreciation, devaluation etc. all depend on the market forces i.e. supply and demand. If the currency depreciates it benefits the exporters and if it appreciates it benefits the importers. RBI can also control the exchange rates to some extent by the use of foreign currency reserves. Whenever there is some rumor in the market arousing suspicion for the performance of companies, or there is some corporate disclosure, or some movement in the global markets, the investors start buying or selling shares aggressively thus affecting the stock markets. Government policies, national and international events, natural calamities, wars etc. all influence the market movements, investments, exports, and imports. The investor perceptions change very quickly based on the experience of other people. Thus it is important to know what all factors will affect the performance of stocks and in our study the performance of mutual funds.In the above backdrop, we define the objectives of our research as follows: To examine the effect of various macroeconomic factors on mutual funds' performance and their relational outcome. To establish the causality between various macroeconomic variables and the select mutual funds.
Literature ReviewFrom previous researches, it is evident that mutual funds' performance is affected by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiments. The interplay of these governs the actual investment volume. With the change in exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rates etc., the common investor becomes skeptical about the economi...