Is the Macy's in my mall going to close? Uncovering the factors associated with the closures of Macy's, Sears, and J.C. Penney stores

Abstract

This study analyzes three national department store chains in order to identify the factors most associated with their store closures. A binary logistic regression revealed some consistencies and differences in the associations. Larger stores are less likely to close for all three chains. Macy's and Sears stores are less likely to close in large malls (than freestanding stores) and if they are located in the West. J.C. Penney stores in the west are also less likely to close than in other regions, but stores in large shopping centers are more likely to close than freestanding stores. Store age was only significant for J.C. Penney stores, and indicated that older stores are more likely to close. Implications for retail managers and city economic vitality are mentioned and future research possibilities are discussed.

The Retail Absorption of Sears and Target's Former Store Portfolio: Examining the Spatial Consequences of Long-Term Vacancies in Shopping Centres Across Canada

“…Additionally, renovations are necessary to stay competitive (Lowry, 1997;LeHew and Fairhurst, 2000;Tokosh, 2018). Renovations are necessary for the success of a shopping centre as it prolongs the lifespan of the centre.…”

“…For example, if the economic region surrounding the mall weakens, the shopping centre may experience a decrease in consumer traffic or high vacancy rates in the centre until the economy can recover. These consequences add to the pressures a shopping centre face (Tokosh, 2018).…”

“…Despite retail property management companies continuing to report increasing net profits, increasing negative media attention has been placed on dead and dying malls (Retail Council of Canada, 2018). Some researchers claim these recent changes in retail trends are understudied, particularly at the store level (Tokosh, 2018). Since the 1960s, the main focus of study in Canadian retail geography literature has been on retail expansion, emerging shopping centre formats and foreign retailers (Tokosh, 2018).…”

“…Some researchers claim these recent changes in retail trends are understudied, particularly at the store level (Tokosh, 2018). Since the 1960s, the main focus of study in Canadian retail geography literature has been on retail expansion, emerging shopping centre formats and foreign retailers (Tokosh, 2018). Existing research on this recent phenomenon are limited, and a concrete framework has yet to be developed for researchers to build on.…”

“…Existing research on this recent phenomenon are limited, and a concrete framework has yet to be developed for researchers to build on. However, due to rising interest in dead and dying malls, emerging shopping centre research is constructing theoretical themes that are used to predict a malls success or decline based on endogenous and exogenous variables related to the centre (Ferreira and Paiva, 2017;Tokosh, 2018).…”